NSE is finally heading for an IPO, with an expected OFS of around ₹30,000 crore. In the unlisted market, the stock is currently trading near ₹2,025.

I spent some time going through the DRHP and comparing NSE with BSE and global exchanges like Nasdaq and LSEG. Here's my takeaway.

First, why has NSE grown so much?

The biggest reason is that India's capital market has exploded over the last five years.

• Demat accounts jumped from 5.5 crore in FY21 to 22.4 crore in FY26.
• The share of household financial assets invested in equities and mutual funds increased from 5.41% to 26.89%.
• SIP contributions grew from ₹961 billion to almost ₹3.5 trillion.

NSE was the biggest beneficiary of this trend.

Today, it controls almost the entire market:

• 93% of cash market turnover
• Nearly 100% of equity futures
• 75% of equity options premium turnover

That dominance shows up in its numbers too.

FY26

• Revenue: ₹16,601 Cr
• Profit: ₹10,302 Cr
• EBITDA Margin: 67%

These are incredible numbers.

But there's one thing that worries me...

Around 78% of NSE's revenue comes from transaction fees, and equity options alone contribute almost 60% of total revenue.

That's a huge dependence on one business.

If you compare this with global exchanges, the picture is quite different.

• Nasdaq earns a large chunk from software and market data.
• LSEG generates a significant share from data, analytics, and software.

Those are recurring businesses that don't depend entirely on trading volumes.

NSE is still heavily dependent on people trading every day.

SEBI has already started tightening the derivatives market

Over the last year we've seen:

• Higher STT
• Larger F&O lot sizes
• One weekly expiry per exchange

These changes have already reduced trading activity across cash, futures, and options.

If this trend continues, it could impact NSE's future earnings growth.

Then I looked at the valuation.

NSE

• P/E: 49x
• PEG: 1.19

BSE

• P/E: 59x
• PEG: 0.48

On the surface, NSE looks cheaper.

But BSE has been growing earnings much faster, which explains why its PEG ratio is significantly lower.

So I don't think looking only at the P/E tells the full story.

Risks I see

• More regulatory tightening in derivatives
• NSDEX entering the exchange business
• MSEI raising fresh capital from investors like Zerodha, Groww and others
• Heavy dependence on options revenue

My estimate for the IPO

Considering the current unlisted price, the expected ₹30,000 crore OFS, and how recent large IPOs have been priced, I think an IPO price of around ₹1,970–₹2,100 would be reasonable.

My conclusion

I don't think there's much debate about whether NSE is a great business—it clearly is.

The bigger question is whether ₹2,025 already reflects most of that quality.

Unless NSE gradually builds more recurring revenue from businesses like market data, indices, analytics, and technology, it will remain highly dependent on transaction volumes, especially equity options.

What do you think? Would you buy NSE in the unlisted market today, or wait for the IPO?