Hot take: Kamala Harris will be an early dropout in 2028

In my opinion, Kamala Harris will drop out early in the 2028 primaries, before Super Tuesday.

My reason for saying this is that her main strength is that she does well with black voters. However, other candidates, mainly Jon Ossoff, also do well with black voters. And unlike Harris, Ossoff is a more fresh face on the national scene and is popular in the South, as seen in Georgia. Imo, if he were to run, Jon Ossoff would be able to beat Kamala Harris in South Carolina.

If Harris lost South Carolina, her campaign would basically be over. She doesn’t have a path to win without black support in the South. She also wouldn’t do well in whiter early states like New Hampshire and New Mexico.

Also, her lead now is almost entirely based off of name recognition. In the 2016 Republican primaries, the frontrunners by mid 2014 were Bush, Paul, and Cristie. All of them flopped and dropped out before Super Tuesday. Once the midterms roll around and candidates start announcing, her lead will fall apart and she’ll start to fall behind.

People don’t want more of an unpopular president, and they don’t want more of a candidate who already lost a general election. I don’t see any reason why Harris would be an exception, and be some strong contender in 2028.