BoxBreakout Signal: PHO — Invesco Water Resources ETF

Signal Date: Jul 28, 2026 | Sector: Utilities | Industry: | Type: ETF

Signal Details

Metric	Value
Volume Confirmed	No
Box High	70.33
Box Low	63.54
Box Width	6.79
Box Age (Days)	57
Close on Signal Day	71.49
H1 Target	77.12 (7.9%)
H2 Target	83.91 (17.4%)
Hard Stop	63.54 (-11.1%)
Height Stop	56.75 (-20.6%)

Historical Context — PHO: Volume Confirmed vs Not Confirmed

Volume Confirmed: PHO only (n=41) | Volume Not Confirmed: PHO only (n=186)

Target	Confirmed Rate	Confirmed Avg. Days	Not Confirmed Rate	Not Confirmed Avg. Days
H1	90.2%	14.5	79.6%	15.3
H2	68.3%	19.2	48.9%	25.3

Confirmed:
H1             ##################--  90.2%
H2             ##############------  68.3%

Not Confirmed:
H1             ################----  79.6%
H2             ##########----------  48.9%

Stop Method	Conf. H2	Conf. STOP	Conf. OPEN	Not-Conf. H2	Not-Conf. STOP	Not-Conf. OPEN
Hard Stop (Box Low)	61.0%	29.3%	9.8%	36.0%	44.1%	19.9%
Height Stop (Box Low - Box Width)	68.3%	12.2%	19.5%	41.9%	26.3%	31.7%
Trend Exit (HMA38 Flip)	34.1%	65.9%	0.0%	19.4%	80.6%	0.0%

Holding Period	Confirmed Return	Not Confirmed Return
5 Days	0.30%	0.02%
10 Days	0.75%	0.29%
20 Days	0.88%	0.75%
30 Days	1.40%	0.63%
50 Days	1.45%	1.76%

(Bar scale: -3% to +3% return, | = 0%)

Confirmed:
5 Days         ----------|#---------    0.3%
10 Days        ----------|###-------    0.8%
20 Days        ----------|###-------    0.9%
30 Days        ----------|#####-----    1.4%
50 Days        ----------|#####-----    1.4%

Not Confirmed:
5 Days         ----------|----------    0.0%
10 Days        ----------|#---------    0.3%
20 Days        ----------|##--------    0.7%
30 Days        ----------|##--------    0.6%
50 Days        ----------|######----    1.8%

Peak High (best point within 60 days, not a fixed holding period) — Confirmed: 7.65% after Avg. 37.9 Days | Not Confirmed: 7.26% after Avg. 38.2 Days

Posted Jul 29, 2026, 12:57 PM UTC