Hello all,
I agreed to do the Buffalo Bills entry in r/nfl's 32 team offseason fan recap series. I'm unsure if the series is going to continue forward (the chap who initially posted looking for volunteers deleted his account sometime in the last month) but I had a ton of fun pouring over stats and thinking about this upcoming season. I am however just a fan so go easy on me! Training Camp starts today!

Buffalo Bills

Division: AFC East

Coaching Changes

The 2025 Bills offseason marks a new direction for the front office and coaching staff with the firing of 9-year veteran head coach Sean McDermott and promotion of OC Joe Brady. In addition to this shake-up, all three coordinators under Brady are new additions to the staff this year. Long time Saints OC Pete Carmichael was hired to coach the offense this season, however, Brady has already confirmed will retain offensive playcalling duties. Chris Tabor, a 2025 McDermott hire from Carolina was replaced by Jeff Rodgers as Special Teams Coordinator.

Perhaps most notably, Jim Leonhard, former DC for the LA Chargers was hired as the new Defensive playcaller for the Bills. In addition to fresh perspective, Leonhard brings an aggresive 3-4 scheme to Buffalo, marking the first time a new defensive scheme has been implemented since McDermott's hiring in 2017.

Beane didn't stop the new faces there, as he and Joe Brady cleaned house with the assistant and position coach staff. With roughly 20 new faces, including former journeyman head coach John Fox as a senior assistant Brady and Beane have expressed excitement about a "clean slate" for this 2026 season.

Free Agency

**Outgoing Players**

Player	Position	New Team
Ryan VanDemark	OL	Vikings
David Edwards	G	Saints
Curtis Samuel	WR	Free Agent
Brandin Cooks	WR	Free Agent
Gabe Davis	WR	Free Agent
Reggie Gilliam	FB	Patriots
Mitchell Trubisky	QB	Titans
Joey Bosa	Edge	Free Agent
A.J. Epenesa	Edge	Free Agent
DaQuan Jones	DL	Free Agent
Larry Ogunjobi	DL	Free Agent
Jordan Phillips	DL	Free Agent
Matt Milano	LB	Free Agent
Shaq Thompson	LB	Free Agent
Taron Johnson	DB	(traded) Raiders
Cam Lewis	DB	Bears
Tre'Davious White	DB	Free Agent
Dane Jackson	DB	Free Agent
Dorian Strong	DB	Wavied (NFI)
Taylor Rapp	S	Free Agent
Jordan Poyer	S	Free Agent

The Bills overhaul doesn't stop with the coaching staff as a huge number of players that contributed meaningful snaps will not be returning in the 2026 season. Buffalo clearly went into this offseason with a focus on getting younger and deeper in the DB room. Last year's group was plagued by injuries which led to players taking snaps out of position during the postseason (Cam Lewis was forced to play safety against Denver). Despite the secondary playing better than the front 7 last year, the guys listed above are savvy veteran former Bills who stepped into clearly defined roles in McDermott's defense. McDermott's firing made clearing the DB room out for some young blood an easy call for the front office.

The loss of David Edwards and Ryan VanDemark marks some change in what has been a very stable O-Line group. Edwards has been the full-time starter at Left Guard since 2024, only missing one game in that span and taking 91% of the snaps at left guard last year. VanDemark has been Buffalo's swing tackle since 2023, he played all 17 games last year and started at RT when Spencer Brown missed time. The Bills rank within the top 7 teams in the league in 6 OL personnel frequency, so we may see a drop off in those sets if they can't find a suitable replacement for VanDemark.

**Incoming Players**

Player	Position	Old Team	Salary	Length
Kyle Allen	QB	Lions	4.1M	2 yrs
Shane Buechele	QB	Bills	1.5M	1 yr
DJ Moore	WR	Bears (Traded)	90M	4 yrs
Trent Sherfield	WR	Patriots	1.3M	1 yr
Dawson Knox	TE	Bills (Ext)	20M	3 yrs
Shane Zylstra	TE	Lions	1.25M	1 yr
Austin Corbett	OL	Panthers	1.5M	1 yr
Lloyd Cushenberry	C	Titans	1.4M	1 yr
Connor McGovern	C	Bills (Re-Sign)	52M	4 yr
Michael Danna	DE	Chiefs	1.4M	1 yr
Bradley Chubb	OLB	Dolphins	43.5M	3 yr
Dee Alford	CB	Falcons	21M	3 yr
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles	DB/LB	Giants	1.25M	1 yr
Sam Franklin	S	Bills (Re-Sign)	7.5M	3 yr
CJ Gardner-Johnson	S	Bears	6M	1 yr
Damar Hamlin	S	Bills (Re-Sign)	1.2M	1 yr
Geno Stone	S	Bengals	1.4M	1 yr
Tyler Bass	K	Bills	3M	1 yr
Mitch Wishnowsky	P	Bills	1.4M	1 yr

We entered this offseason with the same needs that we did last year: WR, Edge, DB. Beane's approach this year was to try and address those needs in **both** the draft and free agency, where as in years past he's tended to try one or the other. This year, his two biggest acquisitions were outside the draft, dealing for veteran WR DJ Moore from Chicago, and signing veteran OLB Bradley Chubb to a 3 year deal.

In Moore, the offense gets an unquestioned WR 1 (something Bills fans have been clamoring for since the departure of Stefon Diggs two years ago). Moore reportedly has good existing chemistry with Josh Allen, as both players were first round picks in the 2018 draft and have known each other since. The predominant argument around the league is that while Moore may not be an elite game-wrecking 1 man WR core, his presence and skillset will allow other receivers (namely slot WR Khalil Shakir) to be a less focal point of the offense, thus creating better matchups and easier route wins. It also opens them up to using more 12 and 13 personnel sets as it no longer requires taking their best receiver off the field.

Chubb, (a top 5 pick in the aforementioned 2018 draft) provides a veteran presence in the pass rush group, and had a strong year in Miami coming off injury with 8.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles (Rousseau led the Bills last year with 7 sacks). Similarly to Moore, Chubb is perhaps a notch below the "elite" pass rushers in the league, but should allow the Bills other star D-Lineman Greg Rousseau and Ed Oliver better matchups. This new secondary is talented, but young, so the Bills should look to give them as much help as they can by being aggressive at the Line of Scrimmage.

Connor McGovern gets paid, and in now the 5th highest paid center in the NFL. McGovern hasn't missed more than 1 game per season since his tenure as a Bill, and I like the choice to reward a durable center and keep some continuity for Allen in an otherwise overhauled offense. Additionally, Austin Corbett is likely the leading candidate to replace David Edwards at Left Guard.

Dee Alford had the best year of his career in Atlanta in 2025, logging 3 picks, 2 sacks, 13 passes defended and 55 solo tackles. For context, Tre White logged 1 pick, 10 passes defended and 29 solo tackles in twice as many starts as Alford last season (granted White is 2 years older). Regardless, Alford will compete with the restocked corner room for playing time opposite Benford. CJ Gardner-Johnson also comes off a strong campaign in Chicago last year, recording 2 picks, 3 sacks, and 51 combined tackles in just 7 starts. "Ceedy-Duce" should be a top candidate to start opposite Cole Bishop at safety.

Draft

Player	Position	Round	College
T.J. Parker	OLB	2	Clemson
Davison Igbinosun	DB	2	Ohio State
Jude Bowry	OT	4	Boston College
Skyler Bell	WR	4	UConn
Kaleb Elarms-Orr	LB	4	TCU
Jalon Kilgore	S	5	USC (South Carolina)
Zane Durant	DT	5	Penn State
Toriano Pride Jr	DB	7	Missouri
Tommy Doman Jr	P	7	Michigan
Ar'maj Reed-Adams	G	7	Texas A&M

Buffalo's 2026 draft again displays the front office's desire for a younger roster with better depth at key positions (WR, DB, Edge). Beane traded down multiple times in this draft to secure a total of 10 picks in the 2026 draft, as well as late round compensation in 2027.

TJ Parker is the most polished prospect of this group, and displayed elite physical tools during his time at Clemson. He has two vets in front of him at OLB, but we'll likely see Parker mixed in on earlier downs as he excelled at stopping the run in college. Parker was often comped to Bradley Chubb during the pre-draft process, so being able to develop behind Chubb and Rousseau might turn out be a solid long-term investment for the team.

Davison Igbinosun is a big physical coverage corner. While his tape looks promising, and he was second team All-Big 10, Beane doesn't have a great track record selecting oversized physical corners in the early rounds (see 2022 draft for details). Igbinosun often relies on his size and strength to reroute receivers, and is sometimes too prone to initiating contact if he gets beat off the route (he finished his college career with 30 penalties). However, he's a long, athletic player with good ball skills, and is a willing and frankly impressive tackler. I expect IGB to land somewhere around CB4 on the depth chart this season in a corner room with some stiff competition.

4th round Tackle Jude Bowry is almost certainly Beane's answer to the departure of Ryan VanDemark. He's played 31 college games, was a team captain at Boston College and has played both left and right tackle during his college career. Buffalo ranked top 7 in 6 OL sets last year, so Bowry could be called upon to carry a significant load, as well as some special teams packages.

Skylar Bell put up an impressive senior campaign at UConn, recording nearly 1300 rec yards, and 13 TDs. Bell possesses prototypical speed and size for a slot receiver with some potential for outside versatility. There's been some noise surrounding a potential injury during the latter half of OTAs this offseason. Bell was seen wearing a compression sleeve on his left calf and sat for mandatory mini-camp. As of 7/28 Bell is listed as "questionable" on the official website, we may know by day's end if he practiced. Bell will compete for the coveted WR3 spot and PR duties, and will have to display some outside versatility if he wants to share snaps with Shakir.

Kaleb Elarms-Orr is an intriguing prospect for this defense. One of the big question marks is who will play ILB opposite Terell Bernard. TB is generally regarded as more of a zone 2nd level defender, so it's sensible that Beane would look to pair him with a physical, aggressive backer who perhaps lacks some of the football IQ and instincts Bernard exhibits. He's a raw prospect, but with Dorian Williams on crutches during mini-camp and still rehabing a neck injury sustained at the end of last season, Elarms-Orr may have a clear apath to the week 1 starting roster

Jalon Kilgore is a typical nickel defender with good size and the ability to help stop the run and defend players lining up in the slot. While he could develop into a free safety asset in the future, it's much more likely Buffalo will only ask him to play nickel this year, and likely only as a backup as I expect Dee Alford to start at nickel.

Offseason News

Josh Allen and his wife Hailee Steinfeld welcomed their first child (a girl), sometime in April, and announced the birth in May through Steinfeld's substack newsletter. On June 19th, the couple announced their daughter's name, Harper Haize Allen.

3rd year WR Keon Coleman's standing with the team has been an ongoing conversation since his benching in week 5 for missing and arriving late to multiple team meetings. He was a healthy scratch in 6 different games last year, and both Keon and McDermott described these issues as "growing pains". Owner Terry Pegula even went so far as to state that picking Coleman in the 2024 draft was GM Brandon Beane being a "team player". These remarks stemmed from Beane's introductory press conference after his promotion to "President of Football Operations".
This implication was seen both as a shot at Coleman personally, as well as an opportunity to scapegoat the outgoing McDermott, and in fact, plenty of footage exists of Beane raving about Coleman's abilities and personality from the pre-draft process. Despite the drama, all parties have affirmed that Keon will be on the team this year, and that a refreshed coaching staff including a new HC, coordinator and WR coach provides a "clean slate" for Coleman to improve both his play and off-field issues.

The Bills will open "New Highmark Stadium" the home of the Buffalo Bills from 2026 onwards. The new stadium boasts some cybernetic future bison (a la the rivalry uniforms), a giant folding table monument, and to the cries of some no Juice to speak of.

On Monday 7/27, the Buffalo Bills announced their new alternate "nickel city" uniforms via social media. Link to Bills official write-up. The new uniforms have been...divisive online to say the least. As of 7/28 there are also unconfirmed reports the Bills will sport their red helmet throwback combo on their Christmas Day matchup against the Denver Broncos.

The NFL is rolling out two more divisions of rivalry jerseys, and the Bills will continue to wear the cold front uniforms (likely in our week 13 away matchup with New England).

Projected Starters

Offense

Position	Player
QB	Josh Allen
RB	James Cook
WR1	DJ Moore'
WR2	Khalil Shakir
WR3	Josh Palmer*
TE	Dalton Kincaid
LT	Dion Dawkins
LG	Austin Corbett'
C	Connor McGovern
RG	O'Cyrus Torrence
RT	Spencer Brown

^(* = Projected Position Battle ' = 2026 Addition)

The battle for WR3 is by far the offense's biggest story heading into camp, as the team has restocked the WR room this offseason. Josh Palmer, Keon Coleman, Trent Sherfield and rookie Skylar Bell will all look to solidify themselves as the primary WR3 option behind Moore and Shakir. I've projected Palmer as the starter here, he was Beane's "splashy" WR acquisition last year and I expect him to get the most rope when it comes to the depth chart. I actually think the best possible scenario for this offense is the resurrection of Keon Coleman's career. He's a big, physical receiver that can block downfield, and if he can just be Mac Hollins 2.0, it could be a huge boon for offensive versatility. Regardless of who winds up with the most minutes, I expect Buffalo to keep all 6 of these receivers on the roster. 

Austin Corbett is the most likely incoming replacement for departing LG David Edwards. He'll compete with longtime backup and special teamer Alec Anderson, as well as incoming rooking G Ar'maj Reed-Adams for minutes next to Dion Dawkins.

TE Dalton Kincaid has been dealing with lingering knee issues since his PCL tear in 2024 and he played a truncated 12 games last year. Dawson Knox has been a consistent TE2, and will still see the field plenty this year even if Kincaid remains fully healthy. Bills staff have been cagey about Kincaid's injury status heading into camp, but assuming he's ready to go, he should dominate the TE1 snap share.

Position	Player
OLB	Bradley Chubb'
OLB	Greg Rousseau
DT	Ed Oliver
DT	Landon Jackson*
NT	Deone Walker*
ILB	Terrel Bernard
ILB	Dorian Williams*
CB1	Christian Benford
CB2	Maxwell Hairston*
S	Cole Bishop
S	CJ Gardner-Johnson'

^(* = Projected Position Battle ' = 2026 Addition)
The defensive side of the ball has a plethora of new faces, as well as some returning characters serving in new roles under Leonhard's new 3-4 scheme. Sophomore lineman Deone Walker has been penciled in to serve as Leonhard's primary nose tackle (he often aligned as a 1 tech DT last year). DT DeWayne Carter has reportedly bulked up to around 345 to take snaps at Nose, and the two will likely share time depending on the package/scheme.

2nd year Bill Landon Jackson has converted from edge to 3-4 DE, and has reportedly bulked \~20 lbs to play inside. He'll compete with classmate TJ Sanders for minutes at the open DE spot next to veteran Ed Oliver

There's a hole in the second level left by departing veteran Matt Milano. Dorian Williams has the most experience, but missed all of OTAs rehabbing both a neck and undisclosed lower body injury. As of camp start he's listed as questionable, but not on the PUP list. If Williams misses time, then it will fall to hometown STer "Buffalo" Joe Andreeson, and incoming rookie LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr to win the position. Should that happen, I'd give the edge to Elarms-Orr to start.

DB has lots of open competition this year, at two key positions. With the departure of McDermott fixture Taron Johnson, the Bills will pit FA signing Dee Alford from the Atlanta Falcons, against rookie 5th round pick Jalon Kilgore for starting nickel duties. Kilgore is a promising prospect, but Alford had an excellent year in Atlanta and will likely dominate the nickel snap share. Kilgore could compete for minutes at saftey but I expect veteran CJ Gardner Johnson to start.

CB2 opposite veteran Christian Benford is likely a contest between sophomore Maxwell Hairston and rookie Davison Igbinosun. Hairston played well in his truncated rookie season last year after battling back from a camp injury. I expect we'll see different combinations of these three DBs depending on the situation, package, etc. as they all have different sizes and skillsets. I expect our zone tendency to plummet as Leonhard will look to generate pressure at the LoS.

Position Groups

**Strengths and Weaknesses:**

QB: I've refrained from discussing it extensively until now, but it's important to acknowledge that Josh Allen is on this football team. The former MVP had a quietly efficient season last year, finishing 4th in completion percentage and 7th in QBR despite taking a career high 40 sacks for 298 yards (he took only 14 for 63 during his 2024 MVP campaign). While the O-Line shares some blame for this regression, Allen will need to clean up his sack numbers and look to throw the ball away a little bit more, as he threw away only 12 passes last year (a career low). Still, Allen is an undisputed top 3 QB and a franchise cornerstone. In addition to contributing to the team's culture, and attracting free agents that would probably otherwise be reluctant to sign to a smaller market team, Allen undeniably sets the floor of this team as a perennial SB contender. In 2026, Josh Allen needs just 18 passing TDs to usurp Bills legend Jim Kelly as the franchise all-time pass TD leader (he hasn't dipped below 20 since his truncated rookie season). 17's our guy, and we should all be eternally grateful for him. In Josh Allen, we trust.

Backfield: Buffalo's 2026 backfield group is made up of dynamic and skilled backs, headlined by 2025 NFL rushing leader James Cook. Cook had a monster year last year, in addition to his rushing title, Cook placed 2nd in yds/att on 309 total attempts (3rd for total attempts in the NFL). Cook has been extremely durable thus far in his career, but at 26, the Bills may look to scale back his touches during the regular season to ensure their star back is healthy come playoffs. Behind him are 3rd year back Ray Davis and 7 year vet Ty Johnson. Davis is undeniably a more explosive and dynamic rusher than Johnson at this point, but Brady likes to use Johnson as a receiver and screen target more than as a traditional sub for Cook. Ben VanSumeren, FB Reggie Gilliam's replacement, is an intriguing prospect. He spent two years as a depth linebacker for the Eagles before converting to FB last year. He hasn't seen the field much in his short NFL career, but it's safe to assume that he won't get many touches and Brady will look to scheme away from Fullback sets in favor of more tight-end heavy looks.

OL: The Bills biggest asset during the Josh Allen era (other than Allen himself) has mostly been credited to the O-Line. In addition to protecting Josh and allowing him to scramble and create yardage out of broken plays, Buffalo's effectiveness running the ball since Brady took over has in large part been thanks to the O-Line group. Last year marked a down year, with Allen being sacked more than even before in his career. Buffalo will also have two new faces in their ranks, so it will fall to former captain and WPMOTY nominee Dion Dawkins to take Austin Corbett and rookie Jude Bowry to "You Already Schnow University" to keep this offense on schedule.

Pass Catchers: This pass catching group has some serious upside (as did last year's), and also has a relatively low floor (as did last year's). On paper, Moore's addition to the group should allow every player below him on the "pass catcher priority list" to carry less weight in the offense, and allow Brady to scheme for more creative dropbacks. However, Moore's 29 and two years removed from his statistical peak. Allen is the best QB he's ever played with, but I think it's fair to acknowledge there's a world in which Moore has difficulty producing on a high volume of perimeter targets. Kincaid has been an elite pass-catching option for Allen and raises the floor of the skill group when he's healthy. He's missed significant time since his PCL, and the front office hasn't given a straight answer about his condition yet. If all else fails, Khalil Shakir was extremely efficient for most of the season, and will continue to be a reliable short gain and screen outlet for Allen.

DL: This new defensive line group should look to add an explosive and distruptive element to a room that has lacked teeth under the previous administration. The Bills finished the 2025 NFL regular season with a 31% Pass Rush Win Rate, ranking 27th in the league. Buffalo's defense also ranked in the bottom 5 in the league on total rush yards allowed. Leonhard's new look defense undeniably starts up front, and pairing Chubb with Rousseau should hopefully bolster the group with veteran leadership on on edges.

ILB: The inside backer core anchored by 2025 captain Terell Bernard is largely composed of new faces. Bernard is a great player, and despite a truncated year from injury in 2025, I expect him to bounce back this year. While he's traditionally played Mike LB for McDermott, I think this new 3-4 scheme should allow Bernard to play a little bit more of a weakside backer role, flowing to the football and covering RBs, while still being able to captain the defense to some extent. This also complements the other personnel well, as Elarms-Orr, Dorian Williams, Joe Andreeson, etc. are all better suited to be a more physical, gap filling second level defenders. Regardless of how Leonhard decides to delegate scheme responsibility, I have faith in the caliber of player Bernard is and expect him to be able to lead this young group effectively.

Secondary: Cole Bishop had a stretch of good games towards the end of the season in 2025 and logged a solid statline including 3 picks, 2 sacks, and 7 defended passes. Just 24 years old, Bishop has received some recognition around the league's analysts as one off the better young safeties in the league. I expect him to play a little more down as a box safety this year. He played that role well at Utah and I think Leonhard will probably look to leverage his strengths and have him participate in the run defense. I'm excited to see Hairston get a full camp, he's a promising young player who I think may turn some heads early into his year 2 outing. The biggest step forward this room has taken is depth, with more viable young pieces who can contribute behind Benford.

Special Teams: Rookie wideout Skylar Bell will likely contend for punt return duties. He was a dynamic returner at UConn and I expect him to add a pop to coordinator Jeff Rodgers' new group. The Bills also have a competition at Punter between FA signing Mitch Wishnowsky and 7th round pick Tommy Doman. I expect Doman to have the inside track here given Beane spent a 7th round pick on him. Kicker Tyler Bass will stay with the team as PK.

Schedule Predictions

Week 1: @ Houston 18-13 W
I think this week 1 battle will be a slow defensive grind. The Texans had by far the best defense in the league last year, but have struggled on offense. I think our young defense will be juiced and Leonhard will be aggressive, and the Bills offense might struggle to click against such an elite unit.

Week 2: v Detroit Lions 35-21 W
The Lions struggled last year with the departure of their OC, Ben Johnson and a primetime New Highmark Inaugural matchup is a tough environment for any team to walk into. I do think Jahmyr Gibbs' new role as the undisputed lead back for Detriot positions him well against a group that struggled against the run last year (I will be drafting A LOT of Jahmyr Gibbs in Fantasy). I think the offense will click and lean heavily on Cook. Josh will create some amazing Josh Allen plays in this one.

Week 3: v Los Angeles Chargers 24-35 L
The Chargers are a talented offensive group now spearheaded by former Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel. I think between yr 2 Omarion Hampton, and Ladd McConkey McDaniel might be able to overwhelm this young defense. We're very capable of beating this team, but the Chargers exploding on offense here wouldn't surprise me.

Week 4: v New England Patriots 24-12 W
I expect Buffalo to enter their third straight home game firing well and looking to prove something against our biggest rival at home. I tend to agree with the narrative that this young NE team will likely regress after a breakout performance last year, as more teams have tape on Maye and this offense. Additionally, AJ Brown is a very different kind of receiver than Stefon Diggs, and could force the offense to be a little more predictable. Additionally, I expect Leonhard might look to target T Will Campbell and collapse the pocket on Drake Maye.

Week 5: @ Los Angeles Rams 14-28 L
Perhaps a Super Bowl preview? The Rams are the consensus favorite to come out of the NFC for most analysts. Reigning MVP Matthew Stafford, an elite WR 1-2 duo, and the most dominant edge rusher in the league in the newly acquired Myles Garrett. This should be a great game, but I'll give the edge to the Rams at home here.

Week 6: @ Las Vegas Raiders 35-14 W
The Raiders have some upside with 1st overall pick Fernando Mendoza leading a new young core, and despite dealing him to the Ravens at the start of the offseason, Edge Maxx Crosby is still a Raider. I expect Buffalo to pick up some steam while a young team working out the kinks will struggle to put it together.

Week 7: Bye

Week 8: v Baltimore Ravens 42-40 W
We've had the Ravens' number for the last few years, despite typically being high scoring contests. Derrick Henry will be a great litmus test this late in the season to see if the new look defense has improved their run-stopping defense.

Week 9: @ Minnesota Vikings 31-21 W
Minnesota's a big question mark headed into the offseason. They still have one of the most undeniable star receivers in the league in Justin Jefferson, so unless Kyler Murray and JJ McCarthy both struggle under center, this young secondary should have a challenge on their hands keeping Minnesota's receivers under control. The Bills are a more known entity, and this late in the season, I expect them to keep rolling.

Week 10: @ New York Jets 34-6 W
I expect we may see a different number Allen under center by the end of this game, the Jets are young, and probably going to be just as bad as they have been. Apologies if there are any Jets lurkers here, but you know it's probably true.

Week 11: v Miami Dolphins 21-14 W
Second week straight playing what should be a terrible division opponent, the Bills might play down to their competition a little bit here in a game they're heavily favored with at home. Still given just how terrible the Phins are projected to be, edge goes to Buffalo here.

Week 12: v Kansas City Chiefs 31-14 W
Our ultimate nemesis, now a shell of its former self, at home, late November, during prime time? I expect Josh to go out there and light the field on fire, 2 Allen rushing TDs in the first half, patient offense in the 2nd, another Max Hairston pick, no I'm not extremely biased, shut up.

Week 13: @ New England Patriots 12-14 L
We split with the Pats last year, and despite my earlier comment about their regression (which I still believe), it's entirely possible that we split with them again. They're a good group who's going to come into this matchup fighting us for seeding in the AFC East, and I expect this to be an all out dog fight.

Week 14: @ Green Bay Packers 28-14 W
Back on schedule, a cold night in December at Lambeau yields another Bills road win. We don't have a clear sense of how Packers OLB Micah Parsons recovery will impact his playtime this upcoming season, but I still expect Buffalo to be the better team by Week 14.

Week 15: v Chicago Bears 38-35 W
After an explosive year under new HC Ben Johnson, it's tough to tell what 2026 has in store for this young Chicago group. Another likely cold-weather game Saturday night in December, I expect this to be a fun, high-scoring, turnover laden game.

Week 16: @ Denver Broncos 21-28 L
Denver's a tough team, and despite a young ascending QB, they're a more complete, mature team than a NE or a Chicago, in my eyes. Denver's a tough place to play with the altitude, and it's a short week late in the season. The Bills are very capable of beating this team, but a loss here wouldn't surprise me.

Week 17: @ Miami Dolphins 40-14 W
After a tough loss in the cold, taking on the Phins late in December could be a boon here for this Bills squad to get rolling before the playoffs. If New England falls off a cliff or loses to both other division teams, then we could see us rest starters in this matchup but I think it's far more likely we look to get an early lead and then rest our starters in the second half.

Week 18: v New York Jets 35-21 W
As above mentioned, the Jets are gonna be bad, and much like last year there's a good chance we'll sit Josh for this game depending on how New England and our seasons go respectively. Even if we pull our starters, I frankly still expect most of our reserves to be able to take care of this Jets team.

This projection lands the Bills at 13-4, one game improved from last year. I expect this year 13 wins will be enough to retake the Division title from the Pats, even if it's by score differential. Realistically, the Bills can beat every time I've just listed, so I think their ceiling is probably close to 15-16 wins. If there are some "growing pains" with all the new faces and schemes in Buffalo this year, I'd see our floor realistically being at least 11 wins.

Parting Thoughts

This offseason marks a new era of Buffalo Bills football. Since the emergence of Josh Allen as a bonafide franchise QB, the front office's only focus has been putting a championship supporting cast around Allen, and winning a Super Bowl. Since 2020 Allen has lead the team to 4 straight divisional games (losing in OT in two of them) and two conference final matchups, both against the KC Chiefs. Many have called for leadership change after these tough playoff losses, and after our 2025 exit, those cries obviously became too loud to ignore.

This new regime under rookie head coach Joe Brady is a time of change for Buffalo, new stadium, new coaching staff, new defensive scheme, and plenty of new personnel. This group has lots of potential, but also lots of pressure. Allen turned 30 this offseason and has been extremely durable thus far in his career, but his prime is undeniably the best chance for the Bills to secure the elusive Lombardi trophy, and that window may start to close in the near future. Therefore this team has one objective. Win now.

Be good,
Do good,
God bless
and Go Bills.