*￼​￼​￼​￼​￼​￼​￼​￼​￼​￼​￼​￼​Only available on Etrade, this is Morgan Stanley's 07/30/2026 deep dive on Aurora.*

TLDR:

# Price Target $14.00 

# —

*"AUR's print and call served as a wrap for all of the proof points that we have recently seen toward AUR's clear and tangible progress toward commercial deployment. Confidence in the story keeps growing."*

Key Takeaways

* ﻿﻿Mgmt. highlighted continued progress toward commercial deployment despite Limited new announcements.
* ﻿﻿Mgmt. also noted active DaaS negotiations with multiple customers for 2027 and beyond
* ﻿﻿Volvo has already built Aurora Driver-powered trucks on its pilot line ahead of the 1Q27 launch.
* ﻿﻿AUR is maintaining control of commercialization with a planned 200-truck TaaS fleet by year-end 2026 while expanding DaaS partnerships.
* ﻿﻿Growing customer pre-orders and strong carrier support reinforce AUR's Leadership in autonomous trucking.

# OVERWEIGHT THESIS

*\[Page 5 -* ***On the Cusp of a Revolution***\]

**We believe AUR is leading the charge with arguably the most sophisticated on-highway, Class 8 autonomous solution amongst peers.** The April rollout of commercial driverless operation is a key milestone for AUR and the industry (as well as being a binary outcome catalyst), which we believe can unlock a long runway of earnings growth ahead. It has been 4 years since AUR went public but the market is finally noticing their autonomous leadership and the stock is up significantly since its 2024 lows - **however, this is just the beginning if our view of the opportunity runway ahead materializes.**

**Bull Case: $24.00**

Commercialization Success

Commercialization succeeds and begins to ramp successfully. Like in our base case, fundamental EV value of \~$42 bn (equity value $43 bn or $24 a share) reflects a \~$1.1 tn TAM, a successful commercial launch, and a quick ramp up in margins given the services-driven model. However, here we assume commercialization and serial production is no longer a question mark an thus apply no execution discount.

**Base Case: $9.00 - $19.00** 

Commercialization Looms

We believe fundamental EV value is \~$42 bn which reflects a \~$1.1 tn TAM, a successful commercial launch, and a quick ramp up in margins given the services-driven model. However, we do not expect the market to give full credit given outsized execution risk particularly for commercialization/serial production. As such, we apply a \~40% haircut in our base case ($21 bn EV) implying 12-mo fwd valuation range of $9-19 reflecting the volatility of the stock upon important catalysts.

**Bear Case: $1.00**

Commercialization Failure or Delay

Commercialization Failure or Delay the commercialization launch and serial production fails we believe the stock could trade at the cash + takeout value which we estimate to be $1 bn, or $1 per share.

Morgan Stanley "Tangible Commercial Progress Evident" | $AUR Research