Super Duolingo free trial charged - refund advice

Good morning, on June 26th around 7 PM, I was offered the free trial for the super Duolingo family plan. When I was singing up I chose to be reminded 2 days before it ended. Yesterday morning around 8 am I was charged by Apple for a years subscription. I assumed they would have charged me around the same time as the subscription started, but now. To make matters worse they charged a card at the bottom of my ApplePay wallet.

I never once received a notification from Duolingo, even though I chose it. This was confirmed via email from Duolingo that my account has not received a trial reminder in over 2 weeks. After I was charged I immediately submitted a ticket for a refund. What are the odds Apple gives me a refund? I’ve been trying to find a way to chat with support since I know the ticket system is probably AI or a bot. Worst case has anyone ever successfully charged back an Apple subscription?