Summer Championship - Analytical Report (by Onkrad)

DH and a few others

Last weekend took place Summer Championship. We learned the names of the last participants of this year World Championship, congratz to them! The tournament greeted us with the least diverse MT meta ever: only 8 decks from 7 classes with two decks being brought by every player. 5 players have brought the same lineup of four most popular decks – Void Soul DH/ Two-Bit Rogue/ Face Hunter/ Mug Shaman and all other had 3 of those 4 decks and one other in place of Face Hunter or Mug Shaman. The main substitutes were Quest Mage and Soothsayer Priest, and Dragon Warrior and Zee Shaman were used by one player each. Were these changes useful or the “basic” decks still performed the best? Let’s dig into analysis.

Since I can't post pictures here please check spreadsheet for the numbers, it will make reading for you much more informative. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q65orgyG4bHL8MDtGYr4gS7MeWSFYByYeDjkhnJ2ZZ0/edit?usp=sharing

A quick reminder what Adjusted Winrate is – in the Conquest format deck’s ban basically means that players agree that one of opponent’s decks will win a game here and decide to save themselves some time. My model takes into account these “missing” wins when analyzing decks’ performance at the tournament. Pure winrate is just simple wins/games.

And we start with the current meta leader, Void Soul DH. The deck was brought by everybody and ended up seeing more bans than games. When it saw play it didn’t lose a single matchup while going 8-3 vs Two-Bit Rogue and 4-1 vs Soothsayer Priest. Not much to add here. 67% Pure Winrate with 61% Banrate obviously makes Void Soul DH the best deck of the Championship by Adjusted Winrate. To no one’s surprise

Two-Bit Rogue was also in every player’s lineup and ended up being the most played deck of the tournament. And in the most played matchups of the Championship the deck by the smallest margin beat Face Hunter (8-7) and Mug Shaman (6-5) which couldn’t make up for losing 3-8 to Void Soul DH, and on top of that it lost 3-5 to Quest Mage. So, only 47% Pure Winrate. But 3 players with Soothsayer Priest in their lineup decided on banning Two-Bit Rogue which elevated the deck’s Banrate up to 21% and let it not fall behind others and take shared 3^(rd) place by Adjusted Winrate

Ok, now to the decks that weren’t brought by everybody. “Only” 12 players had Face Hunter in their lineups. The decks went even against Mug Shaman (6-6) and Void Soul DH (2-2), lost 7-8 to Two-Bit Rogue but 4-1 against Quest Mage and 2-1 vs Soothsayer Priest brought Pure Winrate above 50%. Plus a nice bonus 6 bans. For the first two days Face Hunter was holding strong 2^(nd) place by Adjusted Winrate but on the final day it dropped a bit more and let others catch up with it, so only shared 3^(rd) place in the end

Another victim of the last balance patch, Mug Shaman was used by 8 players. A couple of close matchups: 5-6 vs Two-Bit Rogue and 6-6 vs Face Hunter and a very nice 5-1 vs Quest Mage. 51% Pure Winrate, couple of bans, nothing too fancy. Another shared 3^(rd) place by Adjusted Winrate alongside Two-Bit Rogue and Face Hunter

The last but not the… oh, wait… Quest Mage was used by 6 players. And it was the most polarized deck of the tournament. On one hand 5-3 vs Two-Bit Rogue and 4-0 vs Soothsayer Priest, on the other 1-5 vs Mug Shaman and 1-4 vs Face Hunter and 0-2 vs Dragon Warrior. In total, 42% Pure winrate with 0 bans put it way below previously mentioned decks by Adjusted Winrate, at 5^(th) place

Few words about other decks:

o   Soothsayer Priest did even worse than Quest Mage

o   Dragon Warrior and Zee Shaman, two cheeky aggro brings. Zee Shaman won its only game, and Dragon Warrior helped Che0nsu get 3^(rd) place