[SPC Update] Severe Weather Outlook (Issued: 7:45 AM CDT, August 05) | Today: Marginal | Tor: 2% (CIG 0)

Full Forecast and Technical Discussion: SPC Convective Outlooks

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Day 1 Outlook — Issued: 7:45 AM CDT, August 05

Categorical Map: https://preview.redd.it/fmdv9dvp4khh1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=68b1a75441ac83695304ebfb379cb55786ceea1e

Tornado/Prob Map: https://preview.redd.it/1lgdm5zp4khh1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=f172fd30c7a0dd5af37c4113b1787707d6726556

Forecast Valid From: Mar 5, 7:00 AM CST — Mar 6, 6:00 AM CST

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...

SUMMARY: Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in parts of the southern High Plains, and in southeastern Arizona.

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Day 2 Outlook — Issued: 12:48 AM CDT, August 05

Categorical Map: https://preview.redd.it/rka3cyhq4khh1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=098b678a20ab4d9a46290c4e70ca08fe2d464e34

Tornado/Prob Map: https://preview.redd.it/14mmkcmq4khh1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f7ab787f541cb69f685e9f207c9967b9af99685

Forecast Valid From: Mar 6, 6:00 AM CST — Mar 7, 6:00 AM CST

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

SUMMARY: A few strong storms may occur over small parts of the Great Plains, and over the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts. Isolated hail may occur with the Northern Plains activity.

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Day 3 Outlook — Issued: 2:34 AM CDT, August 05

Categorical Map: https://preview.redd.it/se2hec4r4khh1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c1787330e41202c168d0cbc8877f507c9360cd7

Probability Map: https://preview.redd.it/e70nwpbr4khh1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=08961896e727452ebc0e3b77ea61a8b19977280c

Forecast Valid From: Mar 7, 6:00 AM CST — Mar 8, 7:00 AM CDT

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

SUMMARY: A few strong storms may occur over parts of the Northeast and Upper Mississippi Valley region on Friday. Locally strong wind gusts appear most likely.

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Day 4-8 Extended Outlook

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 8, 7:00 AM CDT — Mar 13, 7:00 AM CDT

To the west, an area of stronger instability is forecast across the Mid MO Valley, where northwesterly midlevel winds of 35 kt will exist along the southern periphery of a trough sweeping across the Upper Great Lakes. Evening/overnight storms may occur across parts of eastern NE, IA, and MO, and instability may be large enough to warrant at least low severe probabilities as the event nears in time.