To all the parrots mindlessly repeating "buy the dip!", "buy during another market irrationality!" etc: have you actually looked at the numbers?
I'm writing this first and foremost because I haven't done a proper DD by myself and, instead of reading comments on Reddit and buying another dip, should have obtained a better understanding of what Novo Nordisk actually is.
Please, please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm not an expert on this company and have still only done a superficial analysis. I really hope I'm missing something and that this stock will someday regain positive momentum.
Let me ask the simplest question from an investor's perspective: what does the company earn its money with? We can see that from the numbers of Ozempic and Obesity Care (all numbers in million DKK):
| Product | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ozempic | 120,342 | 127,089 | 106,299 |
| Wegowy | 58,564 | 79,106 | 79,925 |
| Oral Wegowy | 0 | 0 | 18,010 |
| Saxenda | 6,582 | 3,986 | 1,993 |
| Total | 185,488 | 210,181 | 206,227 |
| Of Total Revenue | 63.9% | 68% | 68.1% |
Separately, Q1 and Q4 FY2026 to better see the impact of oral Wegowy:
| Product | Q1 FY2026 | Q4 FY2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Ozempic | 27,825 | 21,842 |
| Wegowy | 18,235 | 22,661 |
| Oral Wegowy | 2,256 | 7,219 |
| Saxenda | 421 | 625 |
| Total | 48,437 | 52,347 |
| Of Total Revenue | 69.1% | 66.4% |
So, as we see, currently (Q4 FY2026) oral Wegovy brings about 9.1% of the total revenue, while Wegovy pen and Ozempic fell 3.4% compared to Q1.
Even if we're assuming 3x further subscription growth, it will mostly be eaten up by the price cuts, so even if we see sales growth, it would only be a couple of percent of total revenue.
Based on that, I have a couple of questions, which you hopefully have answers to:
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How will the revenue grow before the patent cliff?
-
How will the company earn money after it?
Yeah, yeah, valuation is low. But who said it has to be in the 30–40 area like during the Sema hype? It can stay between 10 and 15 for years, and with current revenue progression, a 50% higher P/E can mean only a 25% higher stock price.
Am I stupid, or can we only hope for about 50% potential upside (which can also be short-term, like this January) in the next several years at best? Then it's not even a hold in a world where fucking FTSE All-World made +75% in the last 5 years, without five 10%+ crashes in a single year. And I'm not even talking about pre-summer 2025!
Thanks for reading, and I really hope someone can bring real arguments that would justify holding more than 0.5% of the portfolio in this.
Posted Aug 5, 2026, 1:22 PM UTC