BoxBreakout Signal: XLI — State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF
BoxBreakout Signal: XLI — State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF
Signal Date: Aug 4, 2026 | Sector: Industrials | Industry: | Type: ETF
Signal Details
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Volume Confirmed | Yes |
| Box High | 181.44 |
| Box Low | 175.96 |
| Box Width | 5.48 |
| Box Age (Days) | 3 |
| Close on Signal Day | 186.40 |
| H1 Target | 186.92 (0.3%) |
| H2 Target | 192.40 (3.2%) |
| Hard Stop | 175.96 (-5.6%) |
| Height Stop | 170.48 (-8.5%) |
Historical Context — XLI: Volume Confirmed vs Not Confirmed
Volume Confirmed: XLI only (n=24) | Volume Not Confirmed: XLI only (n=249)
| Target | Confirmed Rate | Confirmed Avg. Days | Not Confirmed Rate | Not Confirmed Avg. Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 | 62.5% | 27.5 | 75.1% | 15.5 |
| H2 | 12.5% | 23.0 | 51.4% | 25.6 |
Confirmed:
H1 #############------- 62.5%
H2 ###----------------- 12.5%
Not Confirmed:
H1 ###############----- 75.1%
H2 ##########---------- 51.4%
| Stop Method | Conf. H2 | Conf. STOP | Conf. OPEN | Not-Conf. H2 | Not-Conf. STOP | Not-Conf. OPEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Stop (Box Low) | 8.3% | 75.0% | 16.7% | 35.3% | 48.6% | 16.1% |
| Height Stop (Box Low - Box Width) | 8.3% | 29.2% | 62.5% | 44.6% | 26.5% | 28.9% |
| Trend Exit (HMA38 Flip) | 4.2% | 95.8% | 0.0% | 22.9% | 77.1% | 0.0% |
| Holding Period | Confirmed Return | Not Confirmed Return |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Days | -0.09% | 0.04% |
| 10 Days | -1.10% | 0.15% |
| 20 Days | -1.33% | 0.53% |
| 30 Days | -0.82% | 0.51% |
| 50 Days | -1.18% | 1.55% |
(Bar scale: -3% to +3% return, | = 0%)
Confirmed:
5 Days ----------|---------- -0.1%
10 Days ------####|---------- -1.1%
20 Days ------####|---------- -1.3%
30 Days -------###|---------- -0.8%
50 Days ------####|---------- -1.2%
Not Confirmed:
5 Days ----------|---------- 0.0%
10 Days ----------|#--------- 0.2%
20 Days ----------|##-------- 0.5%
30 Days ----------|##-------- 0.5%
50 Days ----------|#####----- 1.6%
Peak High (best point within 60 days, not a fixed holding period) — Confirmed: 4.71% after Avg. 33.7 Days | Not Confirmed: 6.62% after Avg. 37.2 Days
Legend: H1/H2 = price targets above the box (H1 = partial-profit target / breakeven-stop marker, H2 = main target). Hard Stop = break below the box low. Height Stop = box low minus box height. Trend Exit = HMA38 flips short. OPEN = after 60 trading days neither target nor stop was hit. Historical values are shown for both Volume Confirmed and Not Confirmed breakouts side by side, using this symbol's own signal history where enough data is available, or falling back to all signals in the same volume category otherwise (noted per column).
Posted Aug 5, 2026, 1:24 PM UTC