My friends and I always enjoy combing through stats to convince ourselves on what the right picks would be for a given night. So I thought it would be a fun project to make that flow into a web app called Hindsight Picks. Build a rule based algorithm, backtest it, and enter it in contests to compete against others.

To be clear about what it’s not: it is not a replacement for your stack. The current algorithms you can build on Hindsight are deliberately simple, weighted stat rules composed in a UI (“K/BB better than opponent, +3; WHIP over 1.30, −2”). 

To add in some fun, I created contests where you can enter your algorithms to compete against others, as well as the House baseline algos. Once the contest locks, your entry is frozen: it grades in public and the result stays on your track record permanently. Standings get updated live as games finish. The Bookie house character for example picks the favorite for every matchup, and favorites win about 56% of MLB games. 

The backtester is honest with snapshot-dated stats, rules get drop-one attribution, and accuracy numbers carry a noise band.

It has been a fun challenge to come up with something that can try and consistently beat the house.

It is completely free to use and play with, so I am inviting all to come and try it. The “Beat The Bookie” challenge contest runs today, locking entries at 2pm ET, and you can earn the Sharp badge to permanently display on your Hindsight profile for picking 60% or better.

I built this solo, so I am definitely open to feedback on what would make the app more fun or worth using.

Give it a shot at hindsightpicks.com

I built a nightly picks arena for simple rule-based algorithms: entries freeze before first pitch and get graded live in public contests. The market’s number is the baseline. Free, no money involved