Is ED at a school where you're borderline smarter than RD where you're solidly qualified?

Rising junior trying to understand early decision strategy before it's my turn, and I keep hitting a question nobody seems to agree on.

Option A: use your ED application at a school where your profile is borderline, because the ED boost is the only thing that might close the gap.

Option B: use it where you're already solidly qualified, converting a probable RD admit into a near-certain ED one, and take your shots at the reaches in RD.

Option A treats ED as a lottery ticket multiplier. Option B treats it as insurance. And the binding commitment plus losing the ability to compare aid offers sits on top of both.

For people who made this call: which way did you go, and knowing your outcome, was it right? And did anyone's counselor have an actual framework for this, or is everyone just guessing?