Looking at the actual 2026 data:

Kolkata: 8,403 → 8,372 (-31)

Mohali: 8,961 → 8,845 (−116)

Berhampur: 13,042 → 13,278 (+236)

Bhopal: 10,398 → 10,588 (+190)

Pune: 3,226 → 3,371 (+145)

Thiruvananthapuram: 10,303 → 10,440 (+137)

Tirupati: 12,176 → 12,235 (+59)

The important thing is that a closing rank is not a fixed cutoff. It is simply the rank of the last candidate who was actually allocated a seat in that particular round.

So why can it become lower ?

Suppose a candidate with a good rank is currently holding an IISER that is higher in their preference list. They won't necessarily take a lower-preference IISER just because they have a good rank. If, in a later round, they get upgraded, their previous seat becomes available. The newly available seat is then allocated according to the counselling rules — considering rank, category, preference order and seats available at that point.

Therefore, the set of candidates actually receiving seats can change from one round to another. The last candidate getting a seat in R3 can have a better rank than the last candidate who got a seat in R2. That's how a cutoff can move backwards.

For example: Kolkata went from 8,403 in R2 to 8,372 in R3. This does NOT mean that candidates between 8,373 and 8,403 were somehow “skipped” despite being eligible. They may have already been holding another seat, had a different preference order, or simply weren't the candidate who ended up receiving the newly available Kolkata seat in that allocation round.

The same thing happened at Mohali, where the cutoff moved only 116 ranks backward (8,961 → 8,845).

Most importantly, this means we cannot assume that the R2→R3 movement will repeat in R4 or R5. A cutoff can move up, move down, or barely move depending on what happens to seats and candidate preferences in that particular round.

So for someone waiting for a later round, R3's movement should not be treated as a mathematical prediction of R4/R5. We can use previous rounds to understand the trend, but we cannot calculate the next cutoff simply by adding/subtracting the previous movement.

(This is all said by chatgpt guys)

Does this make sense to you?