Advancement Scenarios for G1 Climax 36 A Block

Hello and good morning, afternoon, evening, r/squaredcircle, today we're doing some block math. The G1 Climax is nearing the end of league phase, with only 4 people left in A Block that can advance, about half of B Block still alive, and Drilla Moloney finishing his campaign tomorrow. The match order for A Block's final show has been decided (except the undercard tags), and we can get a glimpse of how things will play out. I'll try my best to lay out every scenario but if someone points out one I missed, or a mistake I made, I will credit you. Preamble aside, let's look at our standings.

Konosuke Takeshita - 12 points, beats Oleg in a tie, loses to Tsuji.

Yota Tsuji, Ryohei Oiwa, Boltin Oleg - 10 point unbreakable tie

Yuto-Ice, Shingo Takagi - 8 points, Ice > Takagi

SANADA, Hirooki Goto, Jake Lee - 6 point unbreakable tie

Great-O-Khan - 4 points

For Takeshita to advance: A win or draw with Oiwa locks in 1st place. If he loses, he will only advance in 2nd if Jake Lee beats Yota Tsuji. If Tsuji wins, Takeshita MUST get a point. Boltin vs O-Khan only matters to Takeshita if Tsuji & Boltin win and he loses, in that case, Takeshita is out.

For Oiwa to advance: A win over Takeshita secures 1st for The Grip, but if United Empire can spoil Boltin & Tsuji, then all he needs is to go the distance for an 11-point, 2nd place finish. If Oleg wins & Tsuji loses, a win puts Oiwa through on tiebreakers. If Tsuji wins, and Oleg loses, Oiwa MUST win to force a 3-way tie between him, Yota, & Konosuke.

For Boltin to advance: He MUST beat O-Khan, and have Takeshita beat Oiwa. Even if Tsuji won, Boltin would take 2nd. The only other path is through the 3-way tie with Oiwa & Tsuji.

For Tsuji to advance: Tsuji can't be tied with only Boltin. He needs to beat Jake Lee, and if Boltin won, he needs someone to win in the main event, WIN, not DRAW. Alternatively, Tsuji can advance clean with a win, plus an Oleg loss, as he beats Takeshita & Oiwa in tiebreakers. Now we're onto the tricky business.

The 4-way tie at 12: In the event of Oiwa, Oleg, and Tsuji all winning, we will have the top 4 all tied. Takeshita would only beat Oleg in this situation, while Oleg only beats Tsuji. Therefore, your A Block semi-finalists are Ryohei Oiwa and Yota Tsuji, with the champ in 1st place.

And the 5-way tie at 10: Then there's this fuckin' thing! Yes ladies and gentlemen our two other block matches may just have a chance to matter! In the astronomically insane event that Shingo Takagi & Yuto-Ice beat SANADA & Hirooki Goto, followed by Takeshita and the United Empire guys winning their matches, we will have Oiwa, Oleg, and all 3 members of Unbound Co. tied for 2nd place at 10 points. Takeshita will take first place, but who gets the other spot?

Oiwa would only beat Oleg in this situation, as he went 0-3 vs UBC. Out. Shingo only beats Oiwa, he's out. Ice went 2-2 between these 5, but that's not enough. And between Oleg and Tsuji, the head to head results say Boltin Oleg is your runner up. Oleg had a clean sweep of Unbound Co. which gives him the leg up in this massive tiebreaker situation.

But what does the match order tell us? With Oleg vs O-Khan going before Tsuji/Lee & Takeshita/Oiwa, sadly I don't think his chances are that great. Not impossible, but not great. Takeshita & Oiwa are in the main event spot, so ONE of them will be going through, maybe even both, but I don't think Jake Lee wins. My best guess, would be that regardless of the result for Oleg vs O-Khan, Yota Tsuji & Ryohei Oiwa would advance after beating Lee & Takeshita. This makes a 3-way tie at 12, that Takeshita loses on both sides, putting Oiwa in 2nd, and Tsuji at the top of the block, or it repeats the 4-way tie I outlined above.

Thank you for your time and have a good day.