Consistent "AP watchdog expired" on sleep entry. dead logic board?

model/specs: 14" MacBook Pro, M4 Max, 64GB, bought late 2024, macOS 26.6.

Every time it tries to sleep it just hard-resets. Close the lid, come back, it's sitting at the login screen having rebooted. What's weird is it seems to work totally fine otherwise. Only

Panic log is short and unhelpful:

SOCD report detected: (AP watchdog expired)
bug_type 210

Empty stackshot, no binaryImages in the panick file or the report modal on the UI after reset.

I've already tried:

• boot in safe mode: same, still "panics"
• claude suggested setting "hibernatemode to 0": still panics
• DFU revive off a second Mac: smooth revive, but panics are still present

One thing that might matter: this started right after I'd been running a big local model through Ollama for a few hours straight to test their new mlx integration. Never had a sleep problem before that day. That day I started seeing pink artifacts on the screen, and I had to stop everything that was running. Those pink rectangle guys are extremely hard to catch, and I am yet to catch one to screenshot.

No idea what to do next, I have switched to my older macbook to be able to continue work. And this mac now has pmset -a disablesleep 1 and I'm just shutting down instead of closing the lid / putting to sleep, which is annoying but works and I rarely have to use this mac anyway (very unfortunately). I don't got applecare+, don't got certified repair service in my country.

So: has anyone seen a watchdog expiry that only happens on sleep entry? What are my options...?