How to manage suspected improvement?

Background info: I've been diagnosed for almost 5 years, and have been much more focused on pacing in the past year. I'd put myself in high mild/low moderate. I work from home and rarely leave the house apart from important things like funerals or weddings, and infrequently for brunch with friends. I'm married to a supportive husband with no kids.

Over the past few months I've felt more and more like I'm unable to judge if I'm slowly getting better or if this is the calm before the storm of a big crash, which has been much more apparent in the past few (roughly six) weeks as I've had a lot going on but haven't seen a marked increase in PEM.

I'm going to wait a bit longer before actually doing anything differently just in case, but I was wondering how I know if/when I should start giving myself more leeway to do things? And how would I go about that? I'm terrified of misjudging it and making myself worse, but naturally if I have the capacity I'd love to be able to do a bit more than I currently do.