6-6 on legs. 1 of 4 tickets. +2.72 units.

Twelve pitchers. Four tickets. No shared legs.

Yesterday's post argued that spreading legs out beats stacking the best leg into everything.

Today it got tested properly.

It worked — just not in the direction I expected.

Results

Pitcher	Pick	Line	Actual	Result
Hunter Dobbins	K O 3.5	+136	6 K	✅
Freddy Peralta	Hits O 5.5	+125	6 H	✅
Reid Detmers	Hits U 4.5	+100	3 H	✅
Christian Scott	K O 5.5	+121	6 K	✅
Logan Henderson	K O 5.5	+120	7 K	✅
Sonny Gray	Outs O 17.5	-175	18 outs	✅
Trevor Rogers	Outs O 17.5	+120	12 outs	❌
Bryce Elder	Hits U 5.5	-125	10 H	❌
Gabriel Hughes	Outs O 14.5	-164	12 outs	❌
Andrew Painter	Hits O 5.5	+120	2 H	❌
Dean Kremer	K U 5.5	-125	7 K	❌
Jacob Lopez	Outs U 14.5	+135	21 outs	❌

Straight bets at 1u each: +0.59u

Tickets

Ticket A — Core
Dobbins / Rogers / Elder
❌ LOST

Dobbins won. Rogers and Elder both missed.

Ticket B — Solid
Peralta / Detmers / Hughes
❌ LOST

Two of three.

Ticket C — Moderate
Gray / Scott / Henderson
✅ CASHED +5.13

Ticket D — Speculative
Painter / Kremer / Lopez
❌ LOST — 0-for-3

Parlay total

1-3 on tickets

4u staked → 6.13u returned

Day: +2.72u on 16u risked

I graded everything at the single-book price the original post told you to trust.

My cross-book feed had Ticket C at +664, which would make the day +4.23u, but I'm using the smaller number.

The thing that actually decided this card

I lost four outs/strikeout legs.

Not one of them lost because of stuff, matchup, or the opposing lineup.

They lost because of pitches per out.

And the walks were the mechanism.

Pitcher	Bet	BB+HBP	Strike%	Pitches	Outs	Pitches/Out
Gabriel Hughes	Outs O 14.5	4	55.7%	88	12	7.33
Trevor Rogers	Outs O 17.5	4	57.0%	79	12	6.58
Sonny Gray	Outs O 17.5	2	63.6%	99	18	5.50
Jacob Lopez	Outs U 14.5	1	69.9%	93	21	4.43
Dean Kremer	K U 5.5	1	67.4%	89	21	4.24

Rogers and Hughes walked themselves out of the game

Rogers put four men on for free in 19 batters:

• 2 walks
• 2 hit batsmen
• 57% strikes

He needed 18 outs.

At the 6.58 pitches per out he was actually running, getting 18 outs would require roughly 118 pitches.

Nobody is leaving a starter out there for 118 pitches in August.

He finished with:

12 outs on 79 pitches.

Hughes was even worse:

• 55.7% strikes
• 4 free baserunners in 22 batters
• 7.33 pitches per out

His 15-out line would've required roughly 110 pitches at that pace.

Both bets were basically dead by the third inning regardless of what the hitters did.

The two unders lost for the exact opposite reason

Kremer walked one hitter and threw 67% strikes.

He averaged just 4.24 pitches per out, the most efficient start on the board.

That meant he was never getting hooked.

He went seven innings.

And seven innings is simply more opportunities to strike people out.

The Under 5.5 K essentially needed him to be mediocre enough to leave early.

Instead, his command bought him two extra innings and he finished with 7 strikeouts.

Lopez was the same story with the sign flipped:

• 70% strikes
• 1 walk
• 93 pitches
• 21 outs
• Line was Under 14.5 outs

My case for the bet was that Oakland's rested bullpen made a quick hook available.

But a pitcher throwing 70% strikes never gave his manager a reason to use it.

That's the actual lesson

The takeaway isn't simply:

It's that I was betting outs and strikeout totals without pricing command at all.

These markets are heavily influenced by pitch efficiency, and I had nothing in the card explicitly measuring it.

Gray makes the point even clearer

Gray cleared his Outs Over by exactly half an out.

18 outs on 99 pitches.

One walk.

If he had Rogers' free-pass rate, he's probably gone after 15 outs.

And Ticket C — the only ticket that cashed — dies with him.

The exception: Hunter Dobbins

Dobbins was almost as wild as Rogers:

• 3 walks
• 1 HBP
• 58.8% strikes
• 6.47 pitches per out
• 97 pitches in 5 innings

That command absolutely capped his innings.

But his bet wasn't an outs over.

It was:

Over 3.5 strikeouts

He finished with 6 K in five innings.

That's an important distinction.

Wild-and-effective can be a disaster for an outs over while being completely acceptable for a low strikeout over.

Those are two very different bets on the same pitcher.

I had been treating command as though it mattered equally to both.

It doesn't.

Other notes

1. Both form-over-model legs blew up

Trevor Rogers

Last 5: 5-for-5
Model projection: 16.63 outs
Line: 17.5

I sided with recent form over my own model.

The model was right.

Bryce Elder

Recent record on the number: 0-for-5
Model projection: 5.20 hits allowed
Line: 5.5

Again, I sided with the streak against my own model.

He allowed:

10 hits and 7 earned runs.

The model was right on both.

2. Ticket D went 0-for-3 — exactly as advertised

Ticket D only existed because I wanted four tickets with zero overlap.

I said in the original post that every leg on it had something wrong with it.

Kremer — the one I specifically said I'd cut first — lost.

That's a pretty good argument for:

Three clean tickets > four tickets with filler

So tonight I'm cutting the card to three.

3. The no-overlap structure did its job

This is probably the most important part of the result.

Dobbins was my best leg.

He won.

Ticket A still lost.

Under last week's construction, where the strongest leg would've been stacked into several parlays, a Rogers or Elder miss could've wiped out almost the entire card anyway.

Instead, one independent ticket survived.

The day finished green despite going:

6-6 on individual legs.

That's the point of the structure.

A 6-6 night shouldn't automatically become a disaster because all four parlays shared one failure point.

4. Painter's miss was the funniest one

Bet:

Over 5.5 hits allowed

Actual:

2 hits allowed

That's not a bad beat.

That's just a wrong read.

Four days in

Date	Legs	Tickets	Net
8/7	7-8	1-6	+6.18u
8/8	5-5	0-7	-7.10u
8/9	6-2	2-5	+8.58u
8/10	6-6	1-3	+2.72u
Total	24-21 (53.3%)	4-21	+10.38u

Running total: +10.38u on 70u risked

Take that number with some salt.

Earlier days were graded using my cross-book feed instead of a single sportsbook, so the true figure is somewhat lower.

And more importantly:

45 legs at 53.3% is not a meaningful sample.

It's roughly one standard error away from a coin flip.

Four days proves nothing.

What changes tonight

Two changes:

1. Adding a command filter

I'm incorporating recent:

• Strike %
• Walk/HBP rate
• Pitches per out
• Pitch efficiency across recent starts

Especially for outs markets.

2. Cutting from four tickets to three

No more creating a speculative fourth ticket just to satisfy the structure.

I'd rather have:

3 independent tickets I actually like

than

3 good tickets + 1 ticket full of filler.

Results tomorrow either way.