My current favorites for the first six Democratic primary states in 2028

For fun I will say just about everyone is in

South Carolina - Kamala Harris

Kamala may end up trying to get in progressives good graces and go a bit left of moderate voters here, but her name recognition with black voters will be perfect and they may not know white moderates like Shapiro and Ossoff that well even if their views fit. The other candidates won’t waste too much of their money challenging the favorite here while she will look to get as big a win as possible.

Nevada - Gavin Newsom

I see Nevada having working class economic voters who too busy paying the bills to be as plugged into the daily politics and culture war, therefore name recognition wins here with Newsom as recognizable governor of nearby state, less black voters helps him hold off Harris and he will put his resources into winning this.

New Hampshire - Pete Buttigieg

If Talarico runs I would consider him to take it and become a serious threat, but for now I will say who Buttigieg almost won New Hampshire in 2020, that type of northeast college educated voter seems to be perfect for his appeal, and he will put all his chips in here.

New Mexico - Gavin Newsom

Largely the same reasons as Nevada.

Michigan - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Michigan has shown strength with progressives and the establishment vote would be all over the place if Whitmer is in, but even without her Newsom and Harris seem fairly even here along with other candidates which could be enough to fall behind a progressive.

Virginia - Jon Ossoff

This potentially could be Ossoff’s Biden-South Carolina as even if losing the first five states, he could erase it with the last win before Super Tuesday and Virginia a good fit to respond to what I predict his lane to be, which is the most go Republicans legally after they leave office guy. He will know this and invest his resources here.