UFC 330 Fight Predictions!
Hello!
I hope we’re all doing well!
Lord Ninja Choke Episode 72
TL;DR Breakdown:
PREDICTION STATS
Total Prediction Stats: 2423 - 1386, 215 Perfect | 580 Decision
Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 70.8% (+0.8%)
Lock Record: 34 - 7 (Thainara Won)
UFC Gamrot v Salkilld Recap
Prediction Results: 11/12 Correct
Parlay: Missed on the first leg!
Alt Bets: Montanha via Sub R1 or 2 hit, but I forgot to play it, so if you hit that, yay!
Profit/Loss for 2026: -17.8u (-4.0)
Well, prediction wise, last week was great, but betting wise, at least for tracked bets, it didn’t go to plan, if I hit that Montanha Sub thing, I think I would have been up, or at least softened the blow.
This weeks card though is barely deserving of a numbered event status, it’s kinda meh from top to bottom excluding the co-main and main event… So, i’m expecting some bumps and scrapes along the way.
Let’s get down to business!
(c) - Champ
(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
NS - No Streak
(#x) - Rank in division
x/3 - Confidence Levels
ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)
GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)
(LR) - Late Replacement
Prelims
Welterweight
Jeremiah Wells (+410) (13-4-1, NS) v Myktybek Orolbai (-600) (16-2-1, 3 FWS)
I had to laugh at the Tapology picks because for a lot of these fights, barely anyone is giving faith to the underdogs, and I feel like it should be my duty to at least give praise where it’s due.
Wells is absolutely staring a titan in the face as he takes on the ever so impressive Orolbai, but there is one thing that stands out to me that Wells is going to do during this fight that is going to be quite effective, and that’s his boxing. See, Wells has better boxing than Orolbai, Orolbai might have more disrespectful strikes (as in, he strikes without a care of what’s coming back his way), but Wells has the more traditional timing and the cleaner strikes that could potentially make it difficult for Orolbai to engage with on the feet. Now, that is about where the praise stops because as with any opponent that faces Orolbai, they face a two-pronged approach, Orolbai could use striking for the most part to deal absurd damage, or he could go for the takedowns and just maul people on the ground… Wells’ defensively has to think about both things and that could brew hesitancy with his own output, if he gets psychologically stunned from overthinking what may come his way, he will likely be pushed up against the cage, and fight based purely on survival and instinct rather than the pre-defined gameplan that he went through camp preparing for.
Orolbai is just a special fighter, he is someone who is so well rounded and is so technical, but he’s also very selective. See, Orolbai is very good at throwing out offense but without repetition, whether its a step in bladed stance jab, a power side body kick or head kick, a straight right, all of these tools that he has in his arsenal he relies on to land heavily on the feet, but he rarely repeats it over and over again, we see fighters often repeat a one-two or a one-four or something that stems from the jab (one), but Orolbai doesn’t, he always throws off different looks and is so hard to counter because of that. If his striking fails him, he will wrestle exceptionally well by being sticky to his opponents, leading to him constantly getting takedowns, constantly switching positions and giving his opponent different feels and pulls, he makes them adjust one way before switching to another direction which then secures the takedown, he is just a multi-layered fighter who seems impervious to being outwrestled, it’s silly, it’s boring, but it’s his primary way to win fights, especially against a great boxer like Wells. I want you to quickly look at the Orolbai/Curtis fight, and there’s one thing that Orolbai does really well that I don’t see many traditional wrestlers do, and that’s go for the single leg, and then transition to a back take, all from using the outside angle of the takedown, this is what ultimately disrupted Curtis from throwing off his own offense and from defending reasonably well, that back take is fantastic and it’s a tool I suspect we’ll see Orolbai use in this fight. That moment I’m talking about occurred in the third round of the Curtis fight.
I got Orolbai winning this one, I know, surprise surprise, Slayer picks a heavy favourite, but I cannot see a route in which Wells wins without a lucky or flush KO, striking is certainly Wells best path to victory, but if he psychologically gets stuck defending or thinking of the defence, he cannot throw effective offense.
Orolbai via Dec (2/3)
Welterweight
Neil Magny (-110) (31-14-0, NS) v Ramiz Brahimaj (-110) (13-6-0, NS)
Magny is in a bit of a precarious position in his career right now, he has yet to really show his old self, he is quite easy to break and defensively he has been exposed time after time, and really the only thing that has led to his downfall has been the leg kicks, now i’m not saying that Brahimaj is going to chop that those legs, but I think it’s always going to be an option now. Now, Magny has a 7 inch reach advantage so he could use his long ranged boxing to keep Brahimaj at bay, but that’s the thing though, if Magny is keeping Brahimaj at bay, then Magny is partially retreating, and one can only retreat so much until they hit the cage wall and thus gives Brahimaj an opportunity to go in for a clinch or a takedown. Magny has always been a bit of a scrappy fighter, but at this age we have seen some deterioration, and that concerns me because Magny’s primary trait as a fight has been his durability and cardio, everything that he does stems from him surviving storms and fighting well against the cage, but these days it’s so hard to see him return to his winning ways unless the fights are dreadfully boring. That’s the key here for Magny, make the fight boring, keep it clean, stick and move until the final horn honks. Do horns honk?
Brahimaj has one route to victory, and it’s fairly straight forward, it’s to grapple and to wrestle, his background is in that, and if he can get Magny into a position on the cage which perfectly lines him up to get taken down, he is absolutely going to go for those takedowns. The only thing that Brahimaj has to worry about is the positioning of the head for those takedowns, if he gets a double or single leg takedown going but leaves his head exposed, I almost guarantee that Magny, with his extremely long arms, are going to have little problem in cinching up a choke. However, if Magny is unable to get the choke and gets taken down, I do think Brahimaj is going to have little trouble in keeping Magny on the ground, he has the strength to keep Magny down, but again, positioning matters, any time that Magny can create a knee shield is a time in which Magny WILL find a way to create a knee shield or something to assist him in getting back up. I think on the feet, Brahimaj has a chance to knock around Magny especially if the strikes come a little wild as he tries to crash into Magny, trying to get into the wrestling positions and all that. Either way, Brahimaj will be on the front foot trying to deal damage or get takedowns, and visually, sometimes that’s enough for the judges to see Brahimaj is busy just enough to win that round.
I do think Magny is going to win this one, but it’s a messy, messy fight, I think Brahimaj has the tools to get the job done but I just don’t know if he can get past that reach of Magny without being tee’d up on the feet. So, Brahimaj may be an Alt Bet here.
**Magny via Dec (1/3)
Light Heavyweight
Rafael Tobias (+175) (14-2-0, NS) v Lucas Fernando (D) (-200) (13-3-0, 4 FWS)
This should be a short one considering that both fighters are still rather green, although Tobias isn’t making his debut, he only has one fight in the UFC.
Tobias is coming off a decision loss against Nurgozhay earlier this year, and it wasn’t a great showcase from the younger talent here as he went for failed takedown attempts and got outstruck by Nurgozhay over those three rounds, so it was rather difficult to find anything positive from that first showcase, he did not throw anything meaningful, and when he did try to throw it was with significant power but also severe inaccuracy. Tobias does have the power to make this one interesting, but if he cannot find the target there’s no point in carrying that power, and the way that Nurgozhay shut that power down from clinching or using speed, it just reminds me of Ribeiro a little bit, you know how Ribeiro (either brother, really!) tends to throw a bit wild and wide, I mean even when Tobias made a comeback attempt during the second round against Nurgozhay, it was wild swinging hooks and it just looked messy. Now, factor in that Tobias is coming in at a 7 inch reach disadvantage and I have to question whether or not Tobias will be able to land those kinds of strikes against the newcomer here because he does have the power to make this one interesting, he just doesn’t have the effective delivery system.
Fernando is the former LFA Light Heavyweight champion, so he certainly has faced his fair share of top level competition in that organisation, and LFA isn’t a bad organisation at all! There has been a few things that stood out to me coming from Fernando that his speed and his length is going to cause a lot of problems for Tobias, I genuinely believe that Fernando has much cleaner boxing technique and since he has a raised shell almost all the time, he should be able to modify it just enough to avoid the telegraphed hooks that Tobias likes to use, and since Fernando likely is going to stay at his own range to land strikes, it just gives him that extra split second to raise the guard and block the hooks. Fernando can be a little bit repetitive with his striking though, he often uses the one-two a whole lot, almost every strike set up stems from his jab so he’s quite the grounded and standard boxer in that regard, but he strikes with such confidence and at times, intelligent aggression that it really does make me more intrigued to see him fight in the UFC!
I have to go with Fernando here, I don’t know what his grappling looks like, but I think that may be the only thing he has to worry about coming from Tobias, because Tobias can wrestle somewhat well, he just tends to mostly use his explosive strikes to win fights, which won’t be too effective here against the more proficient Fernando.
Fernando via KO R2 - (1/3)
Middleweight
Vicente Luque (+110) (24-12-1, NS) v Tresean Gore (-135) (6-4-0, NS)
Luque is in an interesting position in his career, he has moved up to Middleweight after a brilliant career at Welterweight, but it will always raise a few concerns for me, and the main concern here for Luque, for this particular fight, is his chin. See, Luque has fought the whose who of the UFC’s Welterweight division in the last decade, he is battle tested and battle worn, and ever since his brain bleed incident, it has not been shaken from my mind how concerning his brain health and chin durability is. Luque is a fine fighter, don’t get me wrong, he is intelligent and knows what to do during a fight, but when you mix in a volatile fighter like Gore, who is genuinely a terrible fighter who has shown glimpses of “wow he’s not bad!”. Now, Luque has a solid chance to win this fight if he can get the fight to the ground, his grappling and submission skill set should negate the wrestling capabilities of Gore, and as the rounds go by I suspect that Luque’s cardio will hold up moreso than Gore’s given that Gore tends to use explosive actions and sheer physicality to secure his own takedowns and to land his own strikes, so Luque needs to make Gore fight a little haphazardly and capitalise on that. With that said though, Luque cannot eat a clean overhand or straight from Gore, I suspect that Gore is going to want to keep the fight standing so he can land those overhand attacks, because whenever Gore strikes, it comes with his entire weight, he really throws himself into his punches and that power carries well into the third and final round, I mean, that fight against Bekoev kind of answered a lot of questions about Gore, and that main one was “can Gore hang with the rising favourites?”.
Gore has been someone that I have been very critical of in almost every single one of his fights, he is both terrible on the feet but disgustingly good when he’s landing shots and building momentum. The biggest problem is that he has a lazy defence, he has a raised guard but no head movement, and since Gore has the head the size of a bag of potatoes it’s always a prime target for almost any striker that he faces. Gore has kind of transformed his striking a bit to be more well timed and bit more fluid, but there have been times in which he made me wince because he has this gnarly habit of reaching out with a posting hand, fingers outstretched and I mean, i sometimes try to predict eyepokes, so in this particular fight, expect an eyepoke from Gore because its a terrible habit of his. With that said, Gore can fight with a two-pronged approach, he could attack on the feet to create an impression that he is going to just strike with Luque for 3 rounds, or he’s going to strike and then level change which then exposes himself to any guillotine or defensive submission that Luque has, and I do think Luque’s submission game is pretty great. With that said though, Gore does have power on his side and at any time he could drop Luque and rush in for a quick TKO.
I don’t know who to pick here, it’s a very 50/50 fight for me, and whilst I did just advertise the great things about Gore, I just can’t be too sure. So, let me pin the tail on the donkey blindfolded here, we’re in for a wild one. There will 100% be an Alt Bet on Luque via Sub here, but I think Gore can get the KO.
Gore via KO R1 - (1/3)
Middleweight
Donte Johnson (-235) (8-0-0, 8 FWS) v Eric McConico (+185) (11-4-1, NS)
I mean look, when two fighters who don’t have any great wins fight, it’s kind of hard to find a side here, so i’m rather conflicted already, but let’s see how this write up goes and maybe i’ll come to a conclusion!
Johnson is coming off a split decision win against Cody Brundage, and if you guys know me and my thoughts on Brundage, then you also probably know that I don’t rate that win very highly. Johnson is a very inexperienced fighter who relies on output and power to win his fights, he is bad on the ground, he is a fish out of water when he’s on the bottom, he is a rookie, but you know what? Let me flip the script, a new fighter who is new to the sport can absorb information very quickly, they don’t have habits that need to be broken, they have techniques to be learnt, so Johnson, coming back to this fight against McConico, intrigues me because even though he had a rough performance against Brundage, I do think he has learnt and rebuilt himself so that he doesn’t feel that disappointment he felt after winning against Brundage. Now, there are two things that raise the red flags for me, and that’s his very upright stance, and his somewhat iffy ground game, I think that if McConico cannot land the bigger shots against Johnson, McConico will try for a takedown and a submission, that’s the path of least resistance and I think that would be the main thing on Johnsons mind.
McConico is certainly not a great fighter, but he has the experience that Johnson lacks, he has been in the UFC a fair bit longer, and has faced tougher opponents, but I do think that age is going to be a bit of a factor, because whilst McConico is a fairly well rounded fighter, I just expect Johnsons athleticism and especially his lightning fast jabs to be something that will disrupt the rhythm of McConico and perhaps lead to a momentum kind of finish where Johnson just builds up the momentum, picks up the pace and starts landing heavier shots, because whilst Johnson is raw, he still has the speed and power in a tumultuous third round to make this fight interesting. Either way, the only attraction I see in picking McConico is if you were trying to predict or go for a Sub/Points prop, and thus that might be my Alt Bet here because I am still going to pick Johnson to win, but really, it’s a terrible fight and I feel bad for those watching it.
I got Johnson winning this one, very low confidence, but at 27 years old he still has time to learn and some fighters tend to soak up info like a sponge. McConico is an Alt Bet, likely McConico via Sub R1 or 2, we’ll see what happens!
Johnson via KO R2 - (1/3)
Lightweight
Jalin Turner (#15) (-170) (15-9-0, NS) v Kaue Fernandes (+140) (11-2-0, 3 FWS)
So, at a glance, this fight feels like an already battle-tested veteran fighting someone who hasn’t fought the greatest competition in the UFC yet.
Turner is coming off a KO win over Edson Barboza, and that’s already a significant win for anyone, and just the way he did it, absolutely flawless, sniped him at range, landed disgusting body kicks, and when Barboza was still trying to figure out what country he was in, he was getting hit with a dozen punches from a very comfortable Turner, it was just a walk in the park for the 31 year old. Turner presents one main thing in this fight that is rather unique for any of his opponents, and thats his reach and stature, it is hard to prepare for someone who has mastered the full utilisation of what genetics has given him, and Turner is so good at using every asset he has to win, his body kicks are snappy due to the leg length, his jabs are ferocious because of his height and reach, and he is just a very gifted athlete in general. Yes, his record kind of looks a bit gross, but that’s because he is fighting in the most competitive division in the UFC. I do expect that the body kicks are going to be a primary weapon against Fernandes here because Fernandes is already a very aggressive fighter, and what better way to slow down that kind of opponent than to stick a foot to the abdomen or solar plexus (or liver considering that Turner is a southpaw stance fighter) and just slowly eat away at that cardio. Once the guard is lowered then we should see some boxing to the head. One other thing that I really do love about Turner is that he listens to his corner, he takes everything they say in, live during the fight, during the rounds and he adjusts instantaneously, it’s such a great thing to see.
Fernandes is someone who, as I said, hasn’t had the greatest rise to this fight, his wins against Mohammad Yahya, Guram Kutateladze and Harry Hardwick were fine wins for experience sake but they aren’t high level wins, and so I have to question whether or not Fernandes is ready for someone like Turner, it’s a great match up but I feel like it’s too soon. Now, Fernandes is a quick and snappy striker, he could certainly deal damage to Turner, but that’s if Turner engages in a range that Fernandes can let his hands go, and I just don’t know if that’s going to happen, because from what I can see from tape, Fernandes tends to have a wide guard, he’s very loose defensively, his entire torso and head is open to be attacked and only uses his speed and counters as a deterrent, and a deterrent only works if an opponent falls for it, and given Turner’s height and leg reach or whatever, I do think that Fernandes is going to be exposed heavily to the body and leg kicks, Turner is an imposing fighter, he uses his presence to just be a bit of a bully, and i’m intrigued to see just how Fernandes responds to that.
So, going with what I know, and we know Turner more than we know Fernandes so I mean, if you’re with me then let me know because I know this is a divisive fight, war Turner?
Turner via KO R2 - (1/3)
Welterweight
Chidi Njokuani (+190) (25-12-0, 2 FLS) v Joel Alvarez (-225) (23-4-0, NS)
This one interests me greatly.
Njokuani is about as classic of a long time kickboxer turned MMA fighter as you can get, his record reflects a hard long road and whilst he is currently reaching the end of his career due to age and frankly, well, just age, I do think he has about one round, maybe 7.5 minutes of high impact action inside of him. Njokuani is a fantastic striker, everything he throws comes sharp, quick, and with a whole lot of power, and we know that Alvarez doesn’t exactly have the greatest defense, so if Njokuani keeps this fight at kickboxing range, I do think we could see moments in which Njokuani lands something big, rocks and wobbles Alvarez, and he rushes in for the finish to mixed results, either he goes for the ground and pound and Alvarez recovers, uses his length to pull guard and keep the fight on the ground, or Njokuani actually successfully gets the KO and that’s it. There is no scenario that I can see in which Njokuani wrestles or initiates any grappling against Alvarez because that’s silly and just not something Njokuani would do, so it all comes down to the early round KO possibility for Njokuani. If Njokuani cannot get the KO within the first round, or the early moments of the second, I do think his gas tank will take a hit and then Alvarez could slowly take over.
Alvarez is a fascinating one, he’s coming off a devastating loss against Amosov in which he just got bullied in that second round, but that shouldn’t take anything away from him as a fighter because when Alvarez is grappling, he can be a dangerous fighter to deal with, he’s quick to secure positions and his length helps him with getting submissions, but oftentimes his main threat is on the feet, he’s such a fun striker to watch, he’s capable of landing all sorts of strikes and that could be enough in keeping Njokuani busy, I feel like we’re going to see Alvarez focus on the grappling approach here because it’s clearly a great counter for Njokuani’s style. The only issue is that Njokuani is so difficult to approach without getting hit by big attacks, so I have to say that my main intrigue here is whether or not Alvarez can safely get into the clinch or takedown position without being absolutely torn to shreds.
I am making Njokuani an Alt Bet here because I have a soft spot for strikers, but I do think that Alvarez could get the job done if he takes the path of least resistance and takes the fight to the ground.
Alvarez via Sub R2 - (1/3)
Main Card
Lightweight
Edson Barboza (+315) (24-14-0, 3 FLS) v Esteban Ribovics (-400) (15-3-0, NS)
You know, I hate it when my old favourite fighters, the ones that helped inspire me as a martial artist, hit that age in which they are on a decline and soon their time is done… Barboza is one such fighter that has given me inspiration, I remember watching that spinning heel kick against Etim and drilling that heel kick during practice/training (I have a taekwondo background and a kickboxing one) so it comes with a heavy heart that I write this one up because I know Barboza is a shell of his former self, and I know he is very likely to lose, but what if we see glimpses of his old self? It shouldn’t have to be mentioned but Barboza is a fantastic striker, his kicks are gorgeous and his punches are ferocious, so if the fight remains standing I do think Barboza can give Ribovics a bunch of trouble early on, but Barboza’s chin isn’t as good as it used to be, his age makes weight cuts difficult, he is obviously suffering from years of brain damage and all that stuff (38 fights, you can’t NOT have brain damage), I just think that Barboza has about one round of goodness in him before fatigue starts to show. Now, Barboza does have a significant reach advantage, and that’s going to help him for as long as the fight remains a striking heavy bout, but it won’t take much time for Ribovics to start timing the quicker blitzes and even threaten the wrestling a little bit. So, I’m giving Barboza a little bit of praise/hope here, but honestly, it’s a heartbreaking fight to probably watch.
Ribovics is coming off a submission loss against Gamrot in his first headliner bout a few months back, and I am intrigued to see how he bounces back after that because it was obviously his first big opponent and so he had a lot to learn from such a loss, however, the focus here I suppose here what Ribovics can do successfully against Barboza, and there’s a few routes that he could take that could work out in his favour. First, given that he has a shorter reach, I expect flurries to be a huge part of success because if he engages in a tit for tat battle against someone with a 6 inch reach advantage, it just won’t be good for him, he will either have to utilise flurries, or he will have to lure out strikes by using feints, making Barboza over-swing, get off balanced, and then capitalise either with a quick combination, or a level change. I suppose this is the problem with someone like Ribovics, we have only seen him win against kind of low calibre opponents, and in those fights, he also absorbed a lot of strikes himself, he’s an exciting fighter but he needs to make this fight not at all exciting to win.
So, the first round danger is ever-so-present for Ribovics here, as he is still taking on a devastating striker, but once that first round is over, we should be able to see Barboza’s gas tank looking a bit more flimsy and thus we should see Ribovics start to properly find success with only slight moments of resistance from the absolute legend that is Barboza. I got Ribovics winning this one, this is a young mans sport, I just don’t know how he is going to get past that reach, lets see how correct my reads are!
Ribovics via KO R2 - (1/3)
Middleweight
Mansur Abdul-Malik (-550) (9-1-1, NS) v Dustin Stoltzfus (+410) (16-8-0, 2 FLS)
Finally, a short write up… I hope!
Abdul-Malik is coming into this fight after losing for the first time against Yousri Belgaroui, and it’s not a shameful loss because Belgaroui is a legitimate threat to many in this division, but there’s a few things that can happen to someone who lost via KO after gaining so much momentum, they either become a lot more timid and thus lose their “wow!” factor, or they come back looking better than ever. Now, to cut to the chase, Abdul-Malik is facing someone who is kind of set up for failure, someone who can be quite chinny, and I mean, Abdul-Malik is just likely to blast through Stoltzfus within the first round because let’s be honest, that 5 inch reach advantage for Abdul-Malik is a gift. Now, I am not completely counting out Stoltzfus here because he has fought some heavy hitter before, but the pattern that I always see is that Stoltzfus is normally there to be hit, he can withstand strikes until he can’t, and I just think the power of Abdul-Malik is going to shine here.
Stoltzfus is a +410 underdog (According to tapology, so maybe the odds shifted), and that kind of tells a story that we all see here, he’s being fed to the wolves, and he just needs to survive the first round because Abdul-Malik very rarely sees the second and third round (before you say that he saw the third round in his last fight, he also saw a flurry of strikes coming his way which led to his own demise), so as long as Stoltzfus remains defensively sound for the first round, makes Abdul-Malik expend his gas tank, the chance of him winning improves slightly. Now, I do think Stoltzfus could utilise his grappling and wrestling, as he did when he fought Soriano back in 2023, and he has used his wrestling a lot during his career, so he could have success in that particular area, but that means potentially eating heavy shots from Abdul-Malik to get into that grappling range or position.
At the end of the day, I got Abdul-Malik winning this one, likely in the first round, but I mean, I do wonder what the “Round 2 Starts” odds look like because I gotta hand it to Stoltzfus, sometimes he can survive something that many others could not, so I may add Round 2 Starts as an SBR (Single Bet Recommendation, if you read my Parlay Explained posts you already know this).
Abdul-Malik via KO R1 - (2/3)
Flyweight
Charles Johnson (+280) (19-9-0, NS) v Jose Ochoa (-355) (9-2-0, NS)
Johnson is quickly reminding me of Kevin Holland in that he is insanely active, but insanely mediocre. Now, his reach advantage is likely to be the most prominent thing about him during this fight, but I can’t help but think that if he can’t get his long ranged boxing going, he’s just going to get backed up to the cage and fight defensively until he finds the inevitable big counter that can change the trajectory of the fight. Johnson’s cardio has always been a big thing too, he’s always looking fresh in the third even if the first two rounds have a lot of activity and all that, so I have to give him props where they’re due, he’s a great athlete, he’s just not exactly a great fighter, he has shown some fantastic stuff in his career but they’re inconsistent and that makes me think it’s due to his activity, you can’t improve anything if you’re fighting every month.
Ochoa on the other hand is still a little bit of a decision merchant, isn’t he? I don’t think there’s been a fight that has stuck to my mind when you mention Ochoa. Now, he’s coming off a win against Clayton Carpenter in which he showcased disgusting amounts of activity, fast hand speed, varied attack, and he gave Carpenter no space to breathe, let alone think, and that’s the key here for Ochoa, if he can replicate that kind of pace and activity against someone like Johnson, then it’s going to be a short night for both fighters, especially if Ochoa attacks the body as much as he did against Carpenter, you take away the cardio (body shots) and you make Johnson look more vulnerable than he already usually is.
I got Ochoa winning this one, he’s a fun fighter, he loves a good scrap and that’s exactly what I love to see.
Ochoa via KO R3 - (1/3)
Co-Main Event
Women’s Strawweight Championship
Mackenzie Dern (c) (-235) (16-5-0, 3 FWS) v Gillian Robertson (#9) (+190) (17-8-0, 5 FWS)
Okay, I can’t do this fight that much justice, but let me share some thoughts and see if I actually can write something worth reading!
Dern is coming off a fantastic win against Jandiroba in what was a back and forth battle, and we have seen some serious evolutions in Dern’s well roundedness. Now, we know that she’s a fantastic grappler, one of the best submission specialists in the division, and i’ll circle back to that later, but I kind of want to highlight her boxing, her boxing is going to be her biggest advantage in this fight by far. She is far from a top tier boxer, she’s no Clarissa Shields, but she has finally incorporated boxing into her gameplan without looking like a wacky waving inflatable arm flailing tube man. She has honed in on those skills that she obviously was lacking in previous fights and she swings with legitimate power, so that’s the biggest skill gap I can see immediately in this fight. Now, I do believe that Robertson is going to be the one initiating the takedowns, I do think that Robertson will be absorbing strikes in order to get within range to get those takedowns, but once she’s in top control I think that we’re going to see Robertson do relatively fine in keeping top control as long as she keeps activity going. With that said though, there is one angle I want to focus on, and that’s the armbar potential from Dern. See, Robertson is good at getting ground and pound going, but what happens when someone's too loose with the ground and pound? They leave an arm exposed for an armbar or an arm triangle, and given that I think Dern will be on the bottom for the most part, I think we’re going to see Dern land an armbar and potentially win by way of submission. Now, the other thing that needs to be said here is that Dern has 5 round experience, Gillian doesn’t, I think that’s going to be evident when the rounds hit the championship rounds, because whilst Robertson is going to try her damndest to get the fight to the ground, her cardio could take a hit due to the energy required to achieve that. So, ultimately I am siding with Dern here, but let me be stupid for a bit, in a rather non-serious write up for Robertson because I did pretty much cover Robertson in this section.
Robertson is someone who I love watching simply because her journey to a title shot has been long and arduous, we are all too used to seeing a fighter breeze their way to a title shot, so when Robertson was announced she was fighting Dern for the belt, I was damn happy and I started to sprinkle money on Robertson to win, because I do think she has a chance to win, but it’s not as high as Derns chance to win because of Derns massive improvements that she’s shown during her fight against Jandiroba, but if Robertson can get Dern to the ground, stay safe but also active enough to maintain top control, then she has a real chance to get the belt here, and if she does I am going to go insane because what a story that would be. I have already discussed at length at how dangerous Dern is on the ground, the threats of the armbar and all that, as well as the vast difference in striking capabilities between the two, but Robertson has almost always done her business well, she’s great at getting the takedown, and I don’t have any doubt about her getting the takedown in this fight, but my primary concern for Robertson is her striking defence as she approaches that takedown range… she is going to be bruised and battered.
I am leaning on Dern here, likely to win by decision, but I will have Dern via Sub/Points as a Parlay piece so there’s that. I am just intrigued to see what Robertson can do here as I do have money on her also (just ML, maybe via Points at a later date).
Dern via Dec (1/3)
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Posted Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 AM UTC