Looking for a Retiree portfolio Mix that can survive 30 to 40 years, second attempt
Hi, In my earlier attempt to find a right fixed portfolio mix I finally gave up because after back testing and Monte carlo testing every mix had a drawback of either too much drawdown with a better performance, or for a long period lackluster performance that will not survive inflation over such a long period.
So I was looking at a system like, if it is a bull market, go all in with the flow and take the winners in stocks, like Momentum ETF [Green mix]. If the first signals of a down market goto safer [Yellow Mix], and go partly to T-bills. And if the same signal persist goto All safe [Red mix] and go full T-bills.
If you are in the Red mix monitor a second indicator wrt to stagflation. And if this signal persists then go to a Stagflation mix [Orange mix]. And in Stagflation or Red, follow both stagflation and market indicator if can go back to Red or to Green. The Orange mix is T-bills with Gold.
Both indicators I have implemented in Google sheets which I will follow on an end of week basis. In this sheet I also documented the Mix stage changes, to take action based on the monitored signals whether to switch to another mix or not.
Also there is a flexible withdrawal table, based on the % amount of portfolio vs a fixed threshold and the current mix. When in Orange/Red withdrawal percentage of portfolio amount is lower than in Yellow and in Green. So this is the way to have a sustainable withdrawal rate.
Maintenance is super simple, weekly checks if a switch action is needed. And a switch involves selling 1 or 2 ISIN, and buying 1 ISIN. No yearly rebalance of multiple ISINs needed.
My main priorities are: portfolio can survive 40 years, so needs full throttle when it can and a survivable withdrawal rate. It should provide peace of mind when necessary, so the Red and Orange mixes. Yes I will miss money by switching at least with a lag of 1 or 2 weeks.
Yes there are some issues, like whipsaw behaviour is partly catered for by having a Yellow mix. The choice of Momentum vs World ETF or other is debatable.
Please share your thoughts and if you are already having a similar system.
Posted Aug 12, 2026, 10:47 AM UTC