Same ES short setup, same session: -1R then +1.14R, nothing about my process changed
Lost on this exact setup once yesterday in the NY PM session. Shorted the same level again not long after. Same read, same size. That one ran to 1.14R.
I don't trade continuation off a structure flip, not on this one. I wait for the 1m iFVG to actually form and hold, that's the whole confirmation. First time it formed, I shorted it, and it just didn't hold. Stopped out for -1R.
Price came back to the level. Formed another iFVG. Nothing about the setup changed, it was just the second time that session. Took it anyway. This one held.
The loss wasn't proof I read it wrong. It was proof that one specific iFVG failed to hold. Those are different things, and mixing them up is how people ditch a good setup after one bad rep.
If your rule only survives until it costs you money once, it wasn't a rule. It was a feeling that got lucky.
Posted Aug 12, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC