Just came across this brand-new market on Polymarket,  and the pricing looks.. weird!

“Will the loser of the Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary concede by…?”

Current prices for now are 

Aug 12 at 25¢

Aug 13 at 68¢

Aug 15 at 73¢

At first I thought this was basically a lock.

For context, David Crowley has already been declared the winner of the Democratic primary after narrowly beating Francesca Hong.

The margin was only around 3,200 votes out of 787K+, roughly 0.4%. 

But, here's the thing, some reports say Hong reportedly called Crowley shortly after 2 AM to concede, and that she is not seeking a recount.

However, there’s an important catch in the market rules which I had to double check...

A private phone call does NOT count.

The market requires an actual public statement from the losing candidate acknowledging that they lost, that they won’t be the nominee, or acknowledging the opponent’s victory.

So the question isn’t really..

“Has Hong conceded?”

Cause she apparently has privately.

It’s rather.. “Will Hong publicly concede today?”

And that’s where the 25¢ price gets interesting to me.

So while she reportedly has privately conceded, the market is now essentially giving only a 1-in-4 chance that a qualifying public concession happens by 11:59 PM ET today.

Then it jumps to 68¢ tomorrow and 73¢ by Aug. 15.

That looks like the market expects the concession eventually, but is heavily discounting the possibility that Hong makes the required public statement today.

And, I’m not calling this risk-free because the exact wording matters.

But if Hong makes a public statement tonight saying she lost, acknowledges Crowley’s victory, or says she won’t be the Democratic nominee, the Aug. 12 contract should resolve YES under these rules.

That’s the part I’m watching...

Is 25¢ actually mispriced, or am I missing something more about the resolution rules?

Is 25¢ for a public Hong concession mispriced?