The Best Bet series: who offers the most value for NBA MVP?
Over the last few years, we've run a series on the NBA sub that takes a look at some "futures" and gauges the BEST BETS for different awards. Now, these aren't pure predictions as much as indications of value. Someone may be the most likely pick to win MVP at 5:1, but if another player has nearly as good of a chance and is listed at 50:1, that longshot is the better "bet."
We've been running the series for a while now and have had a surprising amount of success. Some of our longshots hit and allowed us to yield a total profit of over 1,000% (seriously). However, the NBA sub stopped allowing gambling or odds discussions, so we have wandered over here to the land of Simmons lovers/haters and degenerates instead.
We'll survey the land for all viable candidates first, and then make our official recommendation at the end. Of course, this all comes with the caveat that these predictions should only be utilized for discussion purposes or for disposable income, because there's almost no chance that 1000% return is going to continue in the long run. When it comes to amateur gambling, you’re lucky to break even.
STUDYING THE TRENDS
There's no shortage of discussions regarding the NBA MVP trophy, but if there's any trend that may be the most defining, it's the idea that chasing the award has become a young man's game.
The 1990s may be the best illustration of this trend. During that decade, there were more MVP trophy winners in their 30s than in their 20s. In fact, the youngest MVP winner was 27 (Michael Jordan in 1991). As a whole, the average age of the MVP winner that decade was 30.8. If you think including 90s Jordan throws off the curve too much, the average age of a non-Jordan MVP was actually older still, at 31.2.
Ever since we hit the year 2000, there hasn't been much love for the 30-somethings. In fact, Steve Nash is the last 30 year old to win MVP, all the way back in 2006.
THE ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATES
It's difficult to win MVP in this era, because the "bar" is so damn high. Specifically, there are two recent winners, standing at the gates like armed sentinels.
We'd have to start with two-time reigning winner Shai Gilgeous Alexander (+300, the equivalent to a 25% chance), now looking for a three-peat. With other candidates, we'd have to ask: how can this person win the MVP? With SGA, we have to ask: how can he NOT win? He's on a great team. He's putting up great stats. He's still in his prime. Why should this season be any different than before?
You can argue that his stats may take a slight dip this season. Last year, Jalen Williams only played 33 games, so when he returns close to 100% he should soak up some of SGA's stats. Rising guards like Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell should also merit an expanded offensive role, especially in contrast to the departing Lu Dort.
Another risk to SGA is the the notion of "voter fatigue." That may have cost Michael Jordan in the 90s, and may have cost Nikola Jokic in 2023. That said, I'd assert that the illusion of "voter fatigue" is mightier than the actual evidence. In most cases where we blame voter fatigue, there are other factors at play. One oft-cited example is 2011, when Derrick Rose controversially denied LeBron James' three-peat. But that said, Rose's Bulls were the # 1 seed that year over James' "Heatles," which is really how he won the trophy. If SGA can have the best stats AND the # 1 seed, he's going to win it again. Voters are more scrutinized and more rational than they have been in the past.
As a result, it’s going to be hard to unseat SGA and the other established winner, Nikola Jokic (+550, 15%). Those are long odds for someone with these recent MVP results: # 1, # 1, # 2, # 1, # 2, # 2. It's an incredible stretch and one that has no strong reason to stop now. The only aspect of Jokic's candidacy that sets off an alarm bell regards his age. Now 31, it may be hard to count him to play 70+ strong games every season. And as noted, his win would defy the recent decades-long trend against 30 year olds.
THE COMING STORM
Amazingly, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are NOT the betting favorites for MVP. That'd be Spurs star Victor Wembanyama (+200, 33% chance).
There's no doubt that Wemby is the future of the NBA. You can make the argument that he's already the most impactful player in the league on a minute-for-minute basis (as we saw in the playoffs). But how much of Wemby are going to see in the regular season? Last year, he averaged 29.2 minutes across 64 games. Do the Spurs have any real motivation to push him beyond that? Sure, he still managed to finish # 3 in voting despite those limited minutes, but it was a distant # 3 (receiving 5% of the first-place votes). There's a good chance he finishes around the same range again. There's also a risk that voters can "throw him a bone" with a DPOY trophy instead of their MVP votes. Overall, I'd be hesitant to bet on Wembanyama for MVP at these odds.
In terms of other rising young superstars, you can argue for 24-year-old Cade Cunningham (+2300, 4%) and 25-year-old Anthony Edwards (+2000, 5%) as darkhorse candidates. Still, I wonder if those two are still rising or whether they've peaked at a ceiling that's a notch below the SGA/Jokic level. Cunningham is entering his 6th season in the league. Edwards is entering his 7th. If they haven't cracked the top 4 yet (despite a top seed for Cunningham last year), then it's going to be hard to rise to # 1 without a few injuries above them.
I'd say the same about other 20-something stars like Jalen Brunson (+4000) and Donovan Mitchell (+6500). They're great players and All-NBA threats, but they haven't shown a viable MVP ceiling so far.
THE FADING SUN
We mentioned that the MVP is a young man's game, so we can almost rule out all the old and injury-prone candidates in their 30s. Vegas agrees, giving 100:1 odds to former candidates like Joel Embiid (+ 15000), Steph Curry (+ 15000), Kevin Durant (+10000), and Kawhi Leonard (+10000).
The most intriguing exception may be Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1200, 8%). Antetokounmpo is on the wrong side of 30 now, but he's still putting up MVP-caliber numbers when he suits up. And unlike OKC and Denver, Miami may need every bit of Antetokounmpo's effort and workload to ensure a playoff berth. If he plays a lot of minutes without a true center, he can potentially get back into the 30/12/6 range again.
For Antetokounmpo, the question isn't his ceiling as much as his team's ceiling. Last season, Miami finished with a mediocre record (43-39) and with mediocre numbers (13th offense, 13th defense). Those shooting concerns will be exaggerated even more after losing Tyler Herro and Norm Powell. I wouldn't rule out Antetokounmpo on principle, but a lot of things would have to go right for him to stay healthy and grab a top-4 seed.
THE STORYBOOK CANDIDATES
Most voters don't adhere to "narratives" and storylines as much anymore, although there are usually a few exceptions (shoutout Ramona Shelburne). If it happens, it'll be at the margins. There's going to be one or two voters who list LeBron James (+35000) on their MVP ballots for "teaching the Sixers how to win!" even if the stats aren't there. But by and large, you're not going to win MVP without elite stats.
That said, if you can couple both (elite stats + a good narrative), then it can only help.
With that in mind, Jayson Tatum (+1800, 5%) is well-positioned to make an MVP push. Without Jaylen Brown around, he's going to be seen as the clear alpha who is carrying the Celtics. His usage and volume stats may be better than ever. Of course, we said that about Brown last year, so Tatum will have to surpass what Brown did in a similar role. The Celtics surprisingly won 56 games last year, so that's a clear bar to beat. If Tatum can bring them up another notch (and above 60 wins), then he'll be a contender.
Subjectively, Tatum looked a half step slow to me when he returned last year (understandably), so I'm a bit hesitant to count on him holding up for 70+ games again as he continues to recover from his Achilles injury. That recovery may also make it difficult for Tyrese Haliburton (+3000) to jump into the mix despite a great narrative himself.
There's also a presumption that Luka Doncic (+650, 13%) will have to "carry" the under-manned Lakers team, which is helpful to his own MVP narrative. And in this case, Doncic may be up for the challenge. In terms of volume stats, he's a beast who can put up historically great numbers. At one time, he averaged 34-9-10 in Dallas. It's not ridiculous to think he can get back up to that level again. Last season, Doncic averaged 33.5 points and 8.3 assists. That came despite playing with another playmaker in LeBron James (20.9 PPG, 7.2 APG). James' stats are going to trickle somewhere, some to Austin Reaves and some to Doncic. Doncic can easily get back up to 34-10 again.
Can the Lakers win enough games to get Doncic an MVP trophy? That'll be tricky. I'm high on new additions like Walker Kessler and Quentin Grimes, but there are holes elsewhere. From an MVP perspective there’s good and bad to that. Doncic’s plus/minus metrics should be great, but his efficiency may not be. And if Doncic's body doesn't hold up again, the Lakers may stumble out of the playoffs entirely.
AT LONG LAST, THE OFFICIAL PICK IS...
At the beginning, we differentiated between the "most likely" winner for an award and the "best bet."
According to the numbers, I'd suggest Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the most likely winner. He's won it before, obviously, and should be right back in the mix again. He also has, by far, the highest "floor" among all major candidates. Unless he gets hurt, he's almost a lock for the top 3.
SGA's proven "ceiling" also keeps most other candidates away from true viability. They can be great -- they can be All-NBA -- but can they be better than SGA (or Jokic)? That's hard to do.
The candidate that I'd bet on is an exception -- LUKA DONCIC.
Statistically, Doncic has always had what it takes to be an MVP winner. In fact, he's been the pre-season favorite in 3 separate years for that reason. He hasn't gotten over the hump yet, but this may be his year. The Lakers are going to give him all the work he can handle, and that may result in gaudy averages like 35-10-10. If SGA, Jokic, and Wemby are load managed to some degree, then his counting stats may outright be better than theirs.
If Doncic's counting stats are a cut above, he doesn't necessarily need a top seed (or even a top 3 seed) to get the MVP trophy given the Lakers’ expectations. And if # 4 or # 5 is the goal, then it's achievable. The West is elite at the top, but there's a soft spot in the 4-5-6 range that the Lakers may be in play for. And if they are, Doncic will get all the credit, and may get enough MVP votes to finally earn his first trophy.
Posted Aug 12, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC