I think Food Price Inflation will reach record highs over the next 12 months

Should be an interesting discussion:

Reasons for high Food Price Inflation (FPI)

1. Energy Price Inflation (e.g., price of petrol/diesel)
2. Cost of Fertilizer (urea is closely tied to crude prices, if petrol/diesel are up, then fertilizer is too, by a similiar amount.)
3. Ukraine has heavily impacted Russia's ability to harvest by knocking out over half over Russia's domestic crude production, how much so, it's hard to tell.
4. Russia, in retaliation for Ukraine hitting it's Black Sea oil export ships, has hit Ukraine's Grain harvest as Ukraine attempts to export via ship on the Black Sea, preventing export to Africa and poorer regions, potentially leading to famine.
5. The worst series of heat waves in my life time.
6. The prediction that heat waves will only get worst over the next 12 months as El Nino reaches it's peak (I fucking hope) - it is currently predicted to result in 1 degree celcius higher global average temperature than the previous record of 2024 of 1.28/1.29c higher global average temperature. I hope this illuistrates how an extra 1 degree celcius could be catastrophic. A reminder that the temperature itself isn't typically the harm (except for heat waves/domes), but the resulting increase in extreme weather/unusual weather patterns that are unsuitable for agriculture in this case.

Post COVID inflation was heavily impacted by the Russian Invasion of Ukraine at the time, which greatly reduced the harvest and hampered exports (2022). Every other year there's been a mutual agreement to not attack eithers Black Sea exports, this year Ukraine made the calculation to destroy Russia's economy, so Ukraine's massive Grain Shipments have not left port, or if they had, have turned around, or been destroyed.

I personally am of the belief that about half of peak FPI in 2024 (of around 12% year on year) was caused by the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, COVID resulted in about 3-5% for mid 2020. This website has a good visualization of StatsNZ data.

https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/food-inflation

Either way, I think over the next 12 months we're in for a world of hurt.