Used car market is bad. Buying or leasing new make sense for my situation?

Hi, I recently moved from Michigan to Utah for a new job. Will be making about 75k a year. I lucked out with moving costs and rent as I was able to keep it cheap which opens up space in my budget for car costs. My budget WAS 10k-15k, now its 15k-22k (OTD) lol with like 3k down. Will be financing through my bank and have a credit score of 750+.

Been reading that the used market is bad right now and August is a bad time to get a car as it is back to school time and everyone is looking for a car. I want a reliable car with decent gas but can also handle the Utah winters.

Was at a dealer yesterday looking at a 2016 XV Crosstrek for 16,6k out the door. Is that good? It seems high for a 10 year old car with 121k miles. Also it has a CVT.

Should i buy a new japanese car? Mazda 3? Corolla? Impreza? They seem to hold their value well looking at the used market lol. Or should I lease new? Stick it out and buy a used car? Not sure. Any advice is appreciated!