Retention bonus vs new offer - which to pick? (Advice needed)

Currently at XXX Company (large IT services), ~4 YOE, Developer level. Current Annual CTC: ~₹8L.
Recently got:
Retention bonus from current employer: ~₹7L, paid out in a lump sum soon, but only “earned” if I stay ~1 more year (full clawback if I leave before then). Merges into CTC after that period.

New offer from YYY Company: Senior Analyst level, Bengaluru. ~₹11.5L fixed + variable bonus (up to ~12.5L total).

Leaning toward the new offer since the money’s real and immediate vs. the retention bonus being locked/conditional for over a year. Planning to ask the new company’s recruiter if they can bump the offer up, citing my situation as leverage.

Questions:

Is ~₹11.5L fixed reasonable for a Senior Analyst role at a top-4 IT firm in Bengaluru right now?

Has anyone actually gotten a company to move on comp using a competing offer as leverage, realistic or wishful thinking?

Any red flags with retention bonus structures like this I should know about?

Would appreciate real experiences, especially from people who’ve faced a similar retention-bonus-vs-new-offer decision.