I’ve been testing whether prediction markets are actually good at pricing probability

I've been spending a lot of time analyzing prediction markets and comparing implied probabilities to public polling, economic data, and historical outcomes.

One thing I've learned is that markets aren't always efficient. Sometimes they overreact to breaking news, while other times they underprice slow-moving trends.

I've started publishing my research publicly a few times each week, including:

·         Research, analysis, and commentary for sports, economics, politics, culture and climate

·         Probability forecasts

·         Market mispricing analysis

If you're interested in evidence-based forecasting and prediction markets, I publish my research for free on Substack.

If you'd like to read the full analysis or follow future forecasts, you can find the publication link below.

https://axiomforecastinggroup.substack.com/