Byron Donalds is sitting at 98.6% on Polymarket to win the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary.

And honestly, the outright market isn’t particularly interesting anymore. Cause it's more or less settled. 

I initially was worried this could turn into a repeat of the Wisconsin Democratic primary, where Francesca Hong was polling ahead but only to fall short to David Crowley. But there’s a key structural difference. Hong’s lead, despite being double-digit, was clearly unstable. But, Donalds’ lead has been remarkably stable across 9 different pollsters over 5 months.

And, I see the recent polling has Donalds comfortably ahead of the field. In one, a July Cygnal poll had him at 43%, compared with 12% for James Fishback and 11% for Jay Collins. And, another July poll put Donalds at 49% and Fishback at just 4%. 

And, that's not all, on Poly, the Fishback market has a much stranger setup or probably signs of smart money?

I saw the top holders here, both on Yes, and No. One trader has put just $4K on Fishback, but because they went in when odds were around 1¢, it would be that they're targeting roughly $303K if he somehow pulls it off.

On the other side, a trader has around $129K positioned against Fishback, targeting roughly $130K, essentially accepting a small return in exchange for betting that the longshot doesn’t pull off the upset.

That’s a pretty wild risk to reward split.. it's kinda the other way around on Donalds.

Fishback isn’t completely irrelevant. He’s shown the ability to move his Polymarket price sharply when he generates attention, and earlier polling in June was considerably more competitive before Donalds rebuilt his lead. 

But, it's just that the latest numbers look much tougher for him.

Personally, I wouldn’t touch the Fishback, but I can understand why someone would take a small shot at this point.

Or maybe, the question should be what is the $4K trader seeing that the rest of the market isn’t?

Byron Donalds is 98% to win. The Fishback market tells a different story