A while back, Governor Cox said high housing prices are the biggest threat to Utah right now.

I don't know, I'm a little more freaked out about the Great Salt Lake disappearing, everyone leaving, and home prices dropping dramatically. I guess that's also a housing-price problem, just the opposite one.

Anyway they're putting $450 million into builder incentives to build starter homes.

These will likely be in developing areas like Eagle Mountain, Plain City, Syracuse, and Spanish Fork, and it's even part of the project happening in Draper where the prison used to be.

$20,000 for first-time buyers 510 slots left

If you remember back in 2023, there was a Senate bill giving $20,000 to first-time homebuyers.

The rule was it had to be a newly constructed home under $450,000.

Right now there are only 510 slots left. It started with $50 million; now it's down to about $10 million. With this newest building initiative, it'll go really quick.

I'd urge first-time buyers to take advantage of this, it's a deferred loan while it's still available.

Mortgage rates and housing inventory

Mortgage rates are at 6.69% today, and mortgage bonds are meaningfully stronger this morning.

Utah's median days on market is 42.

On inventory: four and a half months in Salt Lake,

5.3 in Utah County,

4.3 in Davis,

five and a half in Weber

Statewide about 5.7 months. Sort of balanced, heading toward a buyer's market.

PPI behaves too

Yesterday I spoke about CPI, and it behaved itself.

Today is PPI, the producer price index. It's what businesses pay each other before the cost ever reaches you, the consumer. And it came in flat today, at zero, when the market expected a rise.

Year-over-year it decelerated hard, from 5.5% to 4.7%. The core, which strips out food and energy, rose two tenths against expectations of three, and its annual rate improved from 4.7 to 4.2.

There's one wrinkle worth understanding: the portfolio management line jumped six and a half percent.

That line tracks money-management fees, and it balloons whenever the stock market rallies, when you see stocks go up, you'll see those fees go up.

Counting a stock rally as inflation is debatable.

Even carrying that, the report came in cool. And the same quirky line feeds into the inflation measure the Fed actually watches, which lands later this month, keep that in mind.

What could still move rates

Meanwhile, the job market stayed in its holding pattern: layoffs are low, and hiring is slow. Remember, a hot labor market usually means higher interest rates.

This afternoon we have the 30-year bond auction. If there's weak demand there, it could undo the progress we've made.

And tomorrow we have retail sales, so I'll give you a full, in-depth analysis on everything tomorrow morning. Talk to you then.