The math for a Jalen Coker top 24 WR season

I polled my newsletter last night: "Will Jalen Coker finish as a top 36 WR this year?"

62.5% of 113 voters said "Yes."

And the "No" voters made claims like:

• Bryce can't support 2 top 36 wr.
• The Panthers don't throw enough. They want to control the ball.
• The math doesn't math. There's 32 teams in the NFL, with 32 WR1s and some WR2s better than Coker.

So I did the math...

Bryce Young threw 518 passes last year (in 16 regular season games + 1 playoff game). That’s 32.38 passes per game.

Coker had a 16.67% target share last year in the 10 games he played with Bryce Young (including 1 playoff game).

Over a full 17 game season at those rates, that’s 91.73 targets.

Coker has caught 73.27% of his targets in his career. That would be 67.2 receptions.

Coker has a yards-per-catch of 13.59 for his career. That would be 913.7 yards.

Coker has caught a TD on 5.94% of his career targets. That would be 5.45 td.

Add that all up and you get 11.25 ppr pts/gm and 191.27 points for the season.

Last year’s WR36 was Khalil Shakir with 166.4 ppr points.

Last year’s WR24 was Jaylen Waddle with 194.12 ppr points.

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I went in trying to prove the case for a top 36 finish and came out thinking he could be top 24.

Yes, this is all an oversimplification, and there are a lot of variables in play.

But he just got paid and is locked in as the WR2. A small uptick in target share while maintaining his career averages seems reasonable and would seemingly put him right in the low-end WR2 conversation.

What am I missing here? Am I crazy to think Bryce can support 2 top 24 wr?