This downturn is unlike no other given the removal of taxpayer-subsidised property investor welfare. Say this current downturn leads to a **20%** **crash** in all capital cities:

  
\- **Sydney** would return to **2021** levels

\- **Melbourne** would return to **2018** levels

\- **Brisbane** would return to **2024** levels 

\- **Perth** would return to **2025** levels

\- **Adelaide** would return to **2024** levels

\- **Canberra** would return to **2019** levels 

\- **Hobart** would return to **2020** levels 

\- **Darwin** would return to **2022** levels 

  
Source: Cotality via ABC: [https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-14/cotality-aus-house-price-downturn-scenarios-5pc-10pc-15pc-20pc/107033254](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-14/cotality-aus-house-price-downturn-scenarios-5pc-10pc-15pc-20pc/107033254)



Only **Melbourne** and **Canberra** would return to the previous decade in the above scenario.

  
Keep in mind that this is only accounting for the removal of negative gearing and CGT discounts, high interest rates, record listings, new APRA changes, international uncertainty and rising supply. The **ALP immigration policy announcement expected in 2-3** weeks time is expected to reveal massive cuts to immigration which would potentially make property crash even more and more cities joining Melbourne and Canberra in returning to the previous decade.

📉🏠💥🔥 Australia’s house price crash: where the current slump could take capital city home values