**I’ve been working on a Python-based analytics suite for CS2 demos** and wanted to share what it does + some actual match data.

**What is xR (Expected Rounds)?**

xR estimates how many rounds a team should  have won based on the state of the round at freeze time — specifically equipment value difference and alive player count. It uses a logistic model: more expensive guns + more players alive = higher win probability. The "diff" column shows over/under-performance: positive diff means the team won more  rounds than expected (clutching, good fundamentals), negative means they underperformed relative to their advantages.

**What are Big Chances?**

Big Chances is a mid-round dominance metric. Instead of looking at freeze time, it takes a snapshot at a dynamic mid-round point (first contact or bomb plant) and evaluates who’s in control using a richer model: equipment, alive players, HP, utility, armor, bomb status, time pressure, and defuse kits. A "Big Chance" (★) is flagged when one side has ≥80% win probability at that snapshot. It captures which team was actually  dictating the pace, not just who had the better spawn buy.

**BIG vs G2 Esports**

G2 absolutely dominated this series, winning all three maps. On Cache (Map 1), G2 took it 13-5 despite BIG having a "Big Chance" in Round 2. The cumulative xR tells the whole story: G2 ended with 13.40 expected rounds to BIG's 4.60, a gap that opened up early and never closed. Ancient (Map 2) was closer on paper — G2 won 16-13 with a total xR of 16.49 to BIG's 12.51 — but G2 still consistently outperformed expectations, especially in the later rounds where they pulled away. Inferno (Map 3) was the most lopsided: G2 crushed BIG 13-1 with an xR of 8.15 to 5.85, and BIG's only win came in Round 4 where G2 actually had the Big Chance. Across the series, G2 showed superior round control and capitalized on their advantages far better than BIG.

**Falcons vs Astralis**

Falcons took the series 2-0, but the maps told very different stories. On Ancient (Map 1), Falcons dominated with a 13-7 win and a massive xR lead of 12.73 to 7.27. They built their advantage steadily from the early rounds and never let Astralis back into it, with multiple high-xR rounds including a 0.997 chance in Round 2. Dust2 (Map 2) was a completely different beast: Falcons won 13-11, but Astralis actually outperformed in expected rounds with 12.67 xR to Falcons' 11.33. Astralis had a strong mid-game stretch and several Big Chances, but Falcons managed to clutch key rounds and close it out despite the xR deficit. Falcons' ability to win tight rounds was the difference-maker here.

**Legacy vs FaZe Clan**

FaZe Clan swept this series 2-0 with convincing performances on both maps. On Cache (Map 1), FaZe won 13-6 with an xR of 12.22 to Legacy's 6.78. FaZe established control early, winning Round 1 despite Legacy having a slight xR edge, and then ran away with it — Legacy's only bright spots came in Rounds 7-8 and a brief comeback attempt in Rounds 13-15. Mirage (Map 2) followed a similar pattern: FaZe took it 13-8 with 12.21 xR to Legacy's 8.79. Legacy started strong with four consecutive wins and multiple Big Chances, but FaZe completely turned the tables from Round 5 onwards, winning 10 of the remaining 13 rounds. FaZe's mid-game adjustments and ability to shut down Legacy's momentum were key to their series victory.

Esports World Cup 2026 — xR + Big Chances (BIG - G2, Falcons - Astralis, FaZe - Legacy)