Mythbusters #2: Are bad NFL offenses really bad for fantasy RBs?

I’m working on a Fantasy Football Mythbusters series where I take common assumptions we hear every offseason and test them against historical data.

Myth #2: Avoid running backs on bad offenses.

This one gets repeated constantly during draft season, so I wanted to see how large the effect actually is.

I analyzed 315 primary-RB team seasons from 2016–2025, grouped their teams by offensive scoring, and compared RB production across Standard, Half-PPR and PPR.

The result was pretty convincing.

Average PPR points per game:

Top-10 offense: 16.02

Middle-12 offense: 13.95

Bottom-10 offense: 12.17

That's a 24% drop from a Top-10 offense to a Bottom-10 offense.

The ceiling difference was even more interesting:

40% of primary RBs on Top-10 offenses reached 17+ PPR PPG.

Only 7.3% of primary RBs on Bottom-10 offenses did.

So this one looks less like a myth and more like genuinely useful draft advice.

There are obviously exceptions. Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane both overcame bad offensive environments in 2025. I even went so far as to draft De'Von Achane last night in one of my league because he is that type of exception, but based on the data, for the most part, the rule stands.

Verdict: Myth confirmed. Bad offenses really do suppress fantasy RB production.

Full analysis, methodology and Standard/Half-PPR results:

https://nfledgeline.com/insights/bad-offense-fantasy-running-backs-2026.html