a discussion on shohei ohtani

Going through the Goldin elite auctions for baseball. It seems like a massive portion of these auctions are for Ohtani cards and they seem to be the most expensive.

Don't get me wrong, Ohtani is amazing. But that doesn't mean that his cards can't be overpriced/overvalued.

There is a gigantic number of Ohtani cards, parallels, inserts, refractors, numbered etc. etc.

The price already assumes "GOAT". You're not paying for a player who's 32. You're paying for someone who's already the goat. Which I don't think is necessarily the case.

Will Ohtani become more famous than he currently is? Doubtful.

Will Ohtani be seen as a better player at the end of his career vs today? Also doubtful.

He has 614 career innings pitched.

Matt Harvey and Tim Lincecum, two players who are known for their careers being cut short due to injury have 966 and 1682 respectively.

Jose Fernandez who died at 24 (RIP) had 471 innings. The narrative is "Elite hitter + elite pitcher". But his actual pitching volume is super small.

He's already had two tommy john surgeries, if he has another we can offically end his pitching career. That's when the valuation will drastically change. If he's only a DH for the rest of his career, is that as impressive?

Also, a full time DH will get a decent positional penalty every year, he can stay an amazing hitter, but his WAR accumulation will drastically slow down.

Which brings me to my next point. WAR. His career total is 58. Alex Rodriguez ended his career on 117 and he's never brought up in GOAT discussions, he's never even brought up in card collecting circles. Will Ohtani catch him? If he pitches, maybe. If he doesn't, absolutely no shot.

Hes significantly behind Mike Trout and a decent chunk behind teammate Mookie Betts. If he's only a DH for the rest of his career? Can he even catch up to these two?

This is not meant to be an inflammatory post, lets not fight :)