We could be primed for some big wins in 2029

There's a lot to be doom-and-gloom about in politics, so I kinda wanted to make a more uplifting post.

Background:

Per Polymarket, (yes I know, dubious but still valuable) Democrats are most likely to have 52 Senators after the 2026 elections. In 2028, the map isn't that bad, with Democrats defending in NV, GA, AZ, NH, and PA. All of the senators defending, except Fetterman (DINO) have won reelection before and are generally regarded as strong candidates. Republicans are defending in NC, OH, Alaska, and WI, with Ron Johnson being regarded as a particularly weak incumbent. It's easy to imagine given the unpopularity of the Trump administration that after 2028, Democrats have 53 or 54 seats in the Senate and a healthy majority in the House.

Post Manchin/Sinema, it's clear to all Democrats in congress (except Fetterman, who will not be a senator in 2029) that any Democrat who stands in the way of abolishing the filibuster is committing political suicide. Additionally, with a 53 Senate seats, it's not 2 holdouts you need to find- you'd have to have 4 senators willing to vote against progress and any one of the 4 can be bargained with.

So given that, let's say in 2029, there's a healthy Democratic House, Senate, and President. Let's also say that the filibuster is gone. Here are some wins we're going to get that I'd consider a 90% or greater chance.

• Freedom to Vote Act & John Lewis VRA
• PRO Act
• Minimum Wage hike, indexing it to inflation
• Admission of Puerto Rico as a state. DC is not so likely because it'd probably take a constitutional provision or some means of creating a state that surrounds the national mall while establishing the national mall as DC.
• Background Checks for all gun purchases
• Reestablishing ACA subsidies, SNAP subsidies
• Establishing Roe v. Wade into federal law
• A lot of deficit reduction efforts

Some things that are less than a sure bet, but still might actually happen (greater than 30% chance)

• Huge high-income tax hikes, corporate tax rate hikes
• SCOTUS reform and/or increasing the number of seats
• Prosecution of a lot of folks in the current administration
• An Immigration Reform Bill like the proposed 2013 bill