The 2026 El Niño is the hottest on record up until this point. No event in 76 years has started hotter, and it has a **69% chance it ends up stronger than any El Niño since 1950**. 

**What it means for the US**

* Southern US seasonal rainfall projected at **133% of normal**. This is the most reliable signal in the whole model (r=0.74 across 43 winters): a wetter Gulf Coast and Southeast, with the storm track pushed south.
* Atlantic hurricane season at **46% of normal cyclone energy**. El Niño shears storms apart before they organize.
* Northern US and Canada winter temperature **+1.7°C**, meaning less snow and a milder winter.

**Global food supply**

* SE Asia and Indonesia at **51% of normal rainfall**. This is the strongest relationship in the model (r=-0.84). Palm oil and rice.
* Eastern Australia at **57% of normal** in the wheat belt, southern Africa at **67%** in the maize belt, India's monsoon at **75%**.

**What the three closest winters actually did** (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16)

* **Tornadoes killed 42 in a single night** in central Florida, February 1998. Florida's deadliest tornado outbreak on record; the previous high was 17.
* **80% of Maine lost electricity** in the January 1998 ice storm. Some homes were dark for more than two weeks.
* **Flooding beat the 100-year mark in six states**, December 1982, across an area 250 miles wide and 1,000 miles long from Illinois to Louisiana.
* **72°F in New York City on Christmas Eve**, 2015, beating a record set in 1996 by nine degrees.

Full data set and more insights: [https://getready.team/el-nino-tracker](https://getready.team/el-nino-tracker?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=el-nino-tracker)

Here's what to expect from the 2026 El Niño [Sept 2026 data]