This is a follow-up to my post discussing the best players of the 2025–26 season from a few months ago.

Several people asked in DMs where the top players from this season fit historically. Since this project evaluates every NBA season using the same underlying framework, I figured it would be useful to post my highest-graded single-season peaks of the 21st century. This is a project I started working on over a decade ago, which I've just recently updated to reflect the inclusion of the 2026 season.

The central question remains the same:

How much does this player increase a typical good team’s probability of winning the championship?

As in the original post, these estimates are produced through a synthesis of statistical evidence and film study. I will not make traditional arguments for players, and the goal is not to reward awards, team success, narrative, longevity, or career accomplishment.

It is to estimate the predictive championship value of a given season’s version of a player.

The methodology is identical to the one described in the original post (see link), so I will not repeat the full explanation here. This ranking uses the same offensive, defensive, and net-impact framework, calibrated to approximate added championship probability and adjusted for playoff portability, scalability with other talent, and contextual factors such as teams, schemes, coaching, etc.

Each player is listed in the following format:

Player (plausible ranking range) (OFF, DEF, NET)

The ranking range reflects uncertainty. A range of (2-8), for example, means that while I have the player ranked at a particular spot, I could construct reasonable optimistic or pessimistic arguments that would place him anywhere from second to eighth overall.

The point estimates should be read as estimated central values rather than exact measurements. Many players have overlapping probability distributions and are difficult to separate cleanly.

This year’s version of the list has two new entries: Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who moved up from last year. We also have a new candidate -- Cade Cunningham -- who I do not have on the final list, but who belongs in the next category of players with a reasonable argument to be on it.

General interpretation of NET estimates

• 7.0+ — GOAT-level peak; roughly a top 2 peak since the 1977 merger
• 6.0+ — All-time great peak; roughly a top 10-12 peak since 1977
• 5.4–6.0 — Strong MVP-level season
• 4.6–5.4 — Solid MVP-level season
• 4.0–4.6 — Weak MVP-level season
• 3.0+ — Solid All-NBA-level season
• 1.5+ — All-Star-level season

Ex. ‘XX–‘YY Player Name (plausible ranking range) (offense, defense, net)

1. ‘13 LeBron James (1–2) (5.6, 1.6, 7.2)
2. ‘00 Shaquille O’Neal (1–6) (5.2, 1.4, 6.6)
3. ‘16 Stephen Curry (2–9) (6.2, 0.1, 6.3)
4. ‘25 Nikola Jokić (2–9) (6.2, 0.1, 6.3)
5. ‘04 Kevin Garnett (2–9) (2.8, 3.4, 6.2)
6. ‘03 Tim Duncan (2–12) (3.0, 3.1, 6.1)
7. ’26 Victor Wembanyama (3-14) (2.3, 3.6, 5.9)
8. ’09 Dwyane Wade (3–12) (5.1, 0.7, 5.8)
9. ‘22 Giannis Antetokounmpo (5–17) (3.2, 2.5, 5.7)
10. ’08 Kobe Bryant (6–17) (5.1, 0.5, 5.6)
11. ’16 Kevin Durant (6–17) (5.0, 0.6, 5.6)
12. ‘24 Joel Embiid (5–18) (3.8, 1.8, 5.6)
13. ’17 Kawhi Leonard (7-18) (4.2, 1.3, 5.5)
14. ‘26 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (7–18) (5.0, 0.5, 5.5)
15. ‘16 Chris Paul (8–20) (4.5, 0.8, 5.3)
16. ‘07 Steve Nash (8-20) (5.6, −0.3, 5.3)
17. ‘09 Dirk Nowitzki (9–20) (4.9, 0.3, 5.2)
18. ‘20 Anthony Davis (10–22) (2.2, 2.8, 5.0)
19. ‘24 Luka Dončić (15–23) (5.1, −0.3, 4.8)
20. ‘03 Tracy McGrady (15–24) (4.6, 0.2, 4.8)
21. ‘19 James Harden (17–24) (4.9, −0.3, 4.6)
22. ‘05 Manu Ginóbili (18–25) (3.5, 0.9, 4.4)
23. ’16 Draymond Green (19–29) (1.1, 3.2, 4.3)
24. ’11 Dwight Howard (19–29) (1.6, 2.6, 4.2)
25. ’25 Jayson Tatum (22–32) (2.9, 1.0, 3.9)

Honorable Mentions: Jason Kidd, Russell Westbrook, Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Damian Lillard, Deron Williams, Pau Gasol, Baron Davis, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Brunson, Allen Iverson

In my view, all of these players have a case to make the list if I take an optimistic, yet still reasonable, view on their uncertainties while holding everyone else constant. Kidd, Westbrook, Butler, and George were my toughest cuts; I think they could reasonably be placed as high as #22 or #23. The remaining nine I could see at #25, but not higher than that.

Happy to answer any questions, as always. Some were asked in the original post, feel free to check that out as well.