How strict are profs with your reason for missing a minor quiz?

I'm a freshman. As the title says, I missed a minor quiz that's worth 2.5% of my final grade. It was supposed to be administered onsite but due to rainfall suspensions, it was posted on Canvas from noon to midnight. I agree it's my fault for letting it slip my mind. I also know that I won't be given a chance to retake it if I become honest with my prof because my reason isn't valid. I wanted to come up with a white lie about the rain affecting my ability to take the quiz but I'm not sure just how intensive they are about questioning your reason. Should I just let it go (and make it seem like I don't care about my missed quiz even if I really do) or should I try submitting an excuse? This is the only thing I've missed on their course and I'm not actively not participating and submitting my work.