APLD update, we are not even halfway
APLD has sold 1,410 MW so far across five campuses for about $36.2B over the 15-year base terms, or roughly $86B if every renewal option is exercised.
| Campus | MW | Base term | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polaris Forge 1 (CoreWeave) | 400 | ~$11B | 175 MW live, 150 MW building 4 under construction |
| Polaris Forge 2 | 200 | ~$5B | Under construction, 2027 |
| Polaris Forge 3 | 300 | ~$7.5B | Under construction, 2027 |
| Delta Forge 1 (LA) | 300 | ~$7.5B | Under construction, 2027 |
| Delta Forge 2 | 210 | ~$5.2B | Under construction, early 2028 |
| Sold | 1,410 | ~$36.2B | 175 MW energized (12%) |
| Expansion talks, existing campuses | 250 | not priced | In negotiation (100 MW + 150 MW) |
| Marketed across multiple states | 1,700 | not priced | Uncontracted |
| Sold plus available | 3,360 |
Neither unsold line has been priced publicly, and the two were given as separate figures on the earnings call. At the $25.7M per MW the signed leases average, 1.7 GW would work out to roughly $43B, but that is my arithmetic and not company guidance.
Only 175 MW is energized, about 12% of what they have sold. Management says every project is on time and on budget, and the two deliveries so far did land on schedule. B. Riley kept its $75 target after visiting Polaris Forge 2 in August.
The strain is financial rather than operational. Capex hit $2.87B in FY2026 against $681.6M the year before, and they carry $5.31B of scheduled debt plus about $1.78B of interest. They sold 15.3M shares for $196.4M. The backlog pays out slowly too: $451.1M of lease payments in FY2027, then $1.45B in FY2028. CoreWeave, the tenant at Polaris Forge 1, has legal and financial problems of its own, Nvidia sold out of its stake, and the stock is down about 36% over three months.
What caps growth is power and build speed. They can put up roughly 700 MW a year right now, so even the 1.7 GW they are marketing would take years to deliver.
TL;DR: APLD has sold 1.41 GW for $36.2B, but only 12% of it is switched on. The build is running on schedule. The balance sheet is the worry: $5.31B of debt while the leases do not really start paying until FY2028. About 1.7 GW is still up for sale, and they can only build around 700 MW a year.
Posted Sep 8, 2026, 11:46 AM UTC