Basic theory is that Notre Dame will 100% be in at 11-1 or better. Maybe on paper you could draw up an undefeated G5 team and eleven P4 teams that are 11-1, but it seems extremely unlikely. ND might be on the road as a 9-10 seed with this schedule at 11-1 as an absolute worst case scenario, but they'll be in for sure.

Beyond that, I think we'll need a tiny bit of help to get to a 1-2 seed even at 12-0, and some back pocket insurance for a home playoff game in the event of a slip up would be nice too.

Here is a breakdown of ND's conference opponents this year:

ACC: 6 teams

Big 10: 3 teams

Big 12: 1 team

American: 2 teams

You'll notice a distinct lack of SEC teams. In general it would behoove us ND fans for the SEC to lose its out of conference games no matter the opponent (plus it's hilarious when they lose). It definitely helps when ACC teams do better, even if they're not on ND's schedule. Big 10 teams doing well in general also helps, particularly when they face the SEC. Except for USC, cause fuck em.

Games of note, by conference:

Big 12:

Colorado @ Georgia Tech, 14-13

Terrible coaching by GT. Both teams looked awful.

Baylor vs. Auburn, 16-17.

Baylor wasn't quite able to steal this one. DJ Lagway is awful, by the way. Both of these teams looked bad to me, sloppy football all around, but it would have been nice for the Big 12 to steal this one.

Boston College @ Cincinnati, 15-34

Gi'Bran Payne tore up BC for 108 yards and 7.7 YPC, but unfortunately his teammate got all the TD glory with 3 rushing touchdowns on half as many yards. It would have been nice for BC to steal this one, but both teams are awful overall, IMO.

Big 12 Overview:

If any of the above Big 12 teams are contending for a conference championship, it's an indictment on the conference. The teams that did play P4 out of conference games were bad and played bad teams. Not much to learn from this weekend from the Big 12, IMO.

ACC:

Miami @ Stanford 45-6

Good lord ESPN couldn't help glazing Miami and that passing attack. Stanford is a terrible team even when healthy and somehow they had 15 dudes hurt after the Hawaii game. I can't help but wonder if they just basically rolled over and conceded this game to rest guys so they can have a better chance against weaker ACC foes like GT or Wake Forest down the line. Buried in everything else was the fact that Sedrick Irvin outrushed Mark Fletcher with half as many carries and just 41 yards. Miami couldn't run the ball against Stanford to save their lives and that's going to be a problem for them. Let them have all the glory for now. Toney is an effing moron, doing Heisman poses in week 1 against Stanford... lol.

Clemson @ LSU 51-10

Similar to the game above, holy cow is ESPN overreacting and glazing the hell out of LSU. Clemson had all the quit in them that I thought they might, good news for Miami avoiding the upset I guess, but wow are they bad this year. If Clemson loses to UNC or Cal, I think Dabo could be fired after a Miami ass kicking at this rate. Who knows though, that dude seems to always find a way to pull something out of his butt with his back against the wall.

UCLA @ Cal 45-24

These teams were more evenly matched than the final score indicates, it just looks like Cal's QB collapsed completely down the stretch. Oh well, this one wasn't a big deal either way.

Louisville vs. Ole Miss, 38-41

I missed this one on account of being at the ND game. Defense optional 4th quarter apparently. Massive bummer that Louisville couldn't steal this one. I suspect Ole Miss is merely a middle of the road SEC team, while Louisville is probably an ACC contender at the end of the day. This game probably helps makes the difference in the SEC getting an extra team in the playoffs, unfortunately, particularly if it's ACC getting a 2nd or 3rd team in vs. the SEC getting in a 4th or 5th.

SMU vs. FSU, 27-24

Holy smokes, Jennings is the most Everett Golson like player I've seen since EG finished out his college career 11 years ago. Undersized, but speedy and strong arm. Capable of incredible plays and incredibly dumb turnovers. Wild to win a game at -4 on the turnover margin. FSU has talent, so it's good they got by them on the road. Their game against Louisville in 2 weeks will be an absolute shootout and the winner of that game has an inside track to the ACC championship, IMO.

ACC Outlook:

We got the biggest one we needed (IMO) in SMU beating Florida State. But otherwise it was a very poor, but unsurprising showing from the ACC. Hopefully SMU and Miami continue to win out but also show some more of those glaring flaws (frustrating they are so overlooked in Miami, but as long as Freeman sees them...) down the stretch so none of it will matter.

Big 10:

Toledo @ MSU, 20-30

Well... I put the wrong Michigan school on upset alert against a MAC school, although Michigan State did trail at one point early in the 4th Q before pulling away. But holy shit was that Michigan game atrocious. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE needs to treat that game as a loss for Michigan. Just like their blatant cheating in 2023, everyone is going to overlook this soon enough. Ugh...

Boise State @ Oregon, 27-34

Hey look, I was right in calling that BSU would give Oregon a game and get a bunch of credit for it. There's no Jeanty excuse this time and Madsen is a good, but not great QB. Wild how much credit Oregon gets for narrowly surviving this one and fools like Chud Elliot pound ND for not obliterating Wisconsin out of the gates...

Big 10 Outlook:

The Big 10 got egg on its face big time over the weekend, between the Michigan fiasco and Oregon narrowly surviving, plus ND beating Wisconsin thoroughly. The big tests are coming up soon though.

SEC Outlook:

The big SEC games were all pretty much covered above. ESPN is already going apeshit over them all kicking the crap out of some really terrible teams. Hopefully they will all get their comeuppance next week with some more challenging games. Week 2 is looking pretty dang fun overall, it'll be nice for ND to play early and we can sit back and watch some chaos.

On Wisconsin:

It was very frustrating to watch unfold live, particularly as I was trying to figure out who was who at the game... but I'm very, VERY satisfied with the end result on both sides of the field. Yeah, it would have been nice to see a 100 yard rusher and/or a 100 yard WR. But Aneyas got over 100 all purpose yards and looked great in the second half. Faison got to 81 yards with some great yards after catch.

I thought Gilbert and Graham both flashed. And sure, the TD play by Sanders was frustrating to watch, but he played very well outside of that breakdown. More than anything, people need to give more grace to the corner who is playing opposite Leonard Moore, because that dude is going to give thrown at all damn day, and because that player is NOT Leonard Moore, he's going to give up a bust now and then. As long as it is just 1 play and not 3+, we can more than live with that... and now and then, you'll see something like that DJ McKinney pick 6, just as we saw Christian Gray get his eventually at times last year too. Speaking of which, I thought Gray played really well out of the slot. He slipped up once (literally) and gave up a 6 yard catch. That's the only time I noticed him all game.

I came away from this game impressed with Wisconsin more than anything else. As much as I wanted to see our backups play some more, I think it was good for the OL to be tested like this and hopefully work out their starting configuration moving forward (OL had a lot more juice with Absher in, IMO) and I'm also grateful that Wisconsin's QB had a surprisingly good day throwing the ball so the secondary was pushed as well. It's so much better for them to be challenged against these tall, slow WR's than to have breakdowns against Miami. They will defend Miami so much differently though that it's not even funny. I fully believe Wisconsin has the better OL right now and will be a better rushing team at the end of the day.