October to December Visa Bulletin Prediction - Optimistic scenario very likely

We are almost at the start of the new fiscal year, and I believe the outlook is becoming increasingly positive. Now that we have more FY 2026 data—and given the unprecedented worldwide DHS/State Department disruption of immigrant-visa processing—I wanted to update my predictions for the next several Visa Bulletins.

Last month, I predicted a sizable FY 2027 family-to-employment spillover because of the various consular-processing bans and restrictions. Since then, the worldwide immigrant-visa appointment pause has created an additional obstacle to family-based visa issuance. If the disruption continues through the end of September, it will be even harder for DOS to use the remaining family-based visa numbers before FY 2026 ends.

For that reason, I am raising my optimistic spillover estimate from roughly 75,000 to 90,000+ employment-based visa numbers for FY 2027.

That would increase the likelihood of significant advancement in EB-3, both for Rest of World and potentially for country-specific categories. However, one oversight in my earlier prediction was the assumption that USCIS and DOS would have the final spillover numbers fully calculated and ready to support major cutoff-date jumps in the October Visa Bulletin. That may be unrealistic.

The more likely pattern is a modest advance in October, followed by larger movement in the November, December, and January Visa Bulletins once DOS has finalized the FY 2027 annual limits, measured demand, and adjusted its allocation strategy.

In other words, I would expect a relatively cautious October bulletin, but potentially stronger movement from November through January if the high-spillover scenario materializes.

Overall, have your paperwork ready. If USCIS permits employment-based applicants to use the Dates for Filing chart in October, a large group of applicants could become eligible to submit I-485 packages, including I-765 and I-131 applications.

Under an optimistic 90,000-number family-to-EB spillover scenario, the FY 2027 EB worldwide limit would be about 230,000. EB-3’s baseline 28.6% allocation would be roughly 65,780 visa numbers, compared with about 40,000 in a normal year. That would not eliminate the EB-3 backlog overnight, but it could reduce it in a meaningful way and create a much more favorable environment for Visa Bulletin movement.