“AGI Has Essentially Arrived, Just Not Publicly”: Reports Of “Existential Crises” at OpenAI and Anthropic

Steep rise in the number of people at OpenAI and Anthropic having existential crises these past few weeks.

From conversations with people at and around both labs, it's increasingly clear to me that AGI has essentially arrived, just not publicly. We're likely months, not years, from these models being widely available. And that puts us at a fork in the road, with the point of no return not far past it.

The scramble to act we've seen in the last or week or so is warranted imo. But all of this is super hard to navigate, and the obvious dilemma is that if the U.S. slows its frontier work, it cedes ground to China. Unless Beijing agrees to do the same... which I doubt happens anytime soon.

Time is short - and the decisions made over the next twelve months will be studied for decades to come.

https://x.com/synthwavedd/status/2098881016534638668

The existential crises could be a result of the internal model that solved Navier Stokes in 88 hours.