[SPC Update] Severe Weather Outlook (Issued: 12:58 AM CDT, September 13) | Today: Marginal | Tor: 0% (CIG 0)

Full Forecast and Technical Discussion: SPC Convective Outlooks

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Day 1 Outlook — Issued: 12:58 AM CDT, September 13

Categorical Map: https://preview.redd.it/8r3m37ubd8ph1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=43eb20ac4e2792c3787df193173db30bf93e761f

Tornado/Prob Map: https://preview.redd.it/skr0si0cd8ph1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b9d6b792ba6a12c122d365984e7e9df2a6295dd

Forecast Valid From: Mar 13, 7:00 AM CDT — Mar 14, 7:00 AM CDT

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

SUMMARY: Strong to locally severe storms are possible across parts of upper Ohio Valley and Northeast this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains.

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Day 2 Outlook — Issued: 11:42 PM CDT, September 12

Categorical Map: https://preview.redd.it/vr33eylcd8ph1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=f344cea3d432fb4fbb81fd93582c80411daaf554

Tornado/Prob Map: https://preview.redd.it/c5hd0mpcd8ph1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=c361125a479334f55b1c67b32fd6837fb3f63d53

Forecast Valid From: Mar 14, 7:00 AM CDT — Mar 15, 7:00 AM CDT

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA...

SUMMARY: An isolated severe thunderstorm or two, and perhaps a small organizing cluster of storms, may impact parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late Monday afternoon into early evening.

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Day 3 Outlook — Issued: 2:12 PM CDT, September 12

Categorical Map: https://preview.redd.it/8h6onu7dd8ph1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=2287bfeb3670c0c74c0f2c0ca4ab73bd0f4564c7

Probability Map: https://preview.redd.it/wegtxoddd8ph1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=18ce287ba632a44ffda55a7a509ef78bd2b9a669

Forecast Valid From: Mar 14, 7:00 AM CDT — Mar 15, 7:00 AM CDT

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...

SUMMARY: Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, appears possible across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest late Monday through Monday night.

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Day 4-8 Extended Outlook

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 15, 7:00 AM CDT — Mar 20, 7:00 AM CDT

In the wake of a vigorous short wave perturbation and associated surface cyclone accelerating northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the higher latitudes, a lingering near-surface frontal zone across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central Great Plains may provide a focus for occasional thunderstorm development into the middle to latter portion of next week. However, this may largely remain beneath the northern periphery of initially prominent mid/upper ridging slowly beginning to retrograde from the Southeast toward the Southwestern international border area. Forcing for ascent and destabilization may not support more than rather isolated and/or marginal severe thunderstorm potential, and even latest available AI guidance generally suggests that this limited potential will wane by late week into next weekend.