Theory: Fortune's Weave most likely *WILL NOT* be a prequel

Nor will it likely be a sequel.

I'm not saying it will be set during 3H timeline, but rather that both words don't quite properly express what the game likely is. a prequel, or sequel, really should have a strong connection to the original work. they are used either as a way to tell the story that sets up the context and characters of the original work, or to continue those already established characters and story beats. Regardless of what Fortune's Weave is, it very likely will do neither.

ultimately, it is quite possible (if unlikely) that we won't ever know where it fits in the timeline with any kind of definitive proof.

But that isn't fun is it?

I've compiled below all of the evidence I can think of that supports both the game being before, or after. none of it is really all that conclusive. I've tried to split these up between arguments supported by facts, and arguments supported by theory.

Fact Based:
Before:
- The Calendar: while the Calendar states the year 1449, it is commonly pointed out that we only have a year, not confirmation of what Calendar system is being used. It's commonly thought that Dagda has their own Calendar and so this point is inconclusive.
- The Setting: The setting is very clearly classical Mediterranean era history while 3H is more medieval Europe. This would better support a before timeline
- no canon route: developers are on record to having said that they will not provide a golden route, so it is often presumed we will not get any story of Fodlan after the events of 3H to preserve that
- The Map: The map teases Fodlan on the edge of it, but only shows the Aedrestian Empire. This to me is by far the weakest argument for before, and in some ways I think more strongly suggests after, but I'll address that in the after section.
- Seteth & Canon: This is the argument that Seteth being in Dagda and alive means that it must be before, as he dies in the Crimson flower route, but that's not actually strictly true. Seteth can survive that route.

After:
- The Calendar: gives a year after 1180 Imperial, but no calendar system. That bein said it is not unusual for one empire to adopt another empires Calendar without needing to be subjugated. China has used the Gregorian Calendar for over 100 years and they've never to my knowledge been invaded by the vatican.
- The Setting: certainly leans to before, but it could just be a stylistic choice. regardless we know that if we go far enough back then the setting should actually look futuristic as Agartha was very advanced.
- The Map: The map shows a distinct lack of detail where Faerghus should be suggesting that it is simply incomplete. it also shows boxed labels on what appears to be sovereign nations and empires. we can see they did not provide that label to Morifs and Brigid. this could suggest that this happens during the subjugation of Brigid by the empire, however with a lack of Faerghus being present on the map that would place the timeline directly into the middle of this game. the empire used Brigid to invade Dagda three years after if subjugated the land, in the middle of this games 5 year time span. Loog's rebellion happened within 30 years of those events. Dagda wasn't vassalized until just before the events of 3H
- Sothis: the game appears to feature an adult looking Sothis who sends a soul to fortune to save the world. This would be impossible if the game takes place before, unless Sothis exists in a different time (which is entirely possible). Seiros appears in Enbar 41 years prior to the Empires founding in year 1. This is after the events of the massacre at Zanado, and Nemesis had already raided Sothis tomb by that point. There was an attempt to revive Sothis of Fodlan later but it was unsuccessful. at no point in the entire history of the Adrestian empire was Sothis ever alive, unless it was after.

Theory based:
Before:
- Seteth being in the game presents a huge problem for writing because he would have direct knowledge of the events of 3H. the writing team would have to work around that if it happens after.
- In general makign a game set in the future would be a bad idea because they wouldn't be able to say anything that would commit to a canon ending in 3H. what would be the point in making a game so far in the future that there is no relevant ties to 3H?

After:
- why would Seteth have any occasion to comment on events that happened possibly hundreds of years ago on a different continent? even if the map is correct the Adrestian empire covering the entire continent of Fodlan doesn't provide us with a concrete canon route. some conflict after might have happened, or even a peaceful reunification where the empire name was restored as that is what the the church of Seiros has originally named it.
- If the intent to set the game before is to make sure we can have tie-ins to 3H for 3H fans, why would they set it so far before on a different continent that we know little about? would it not make more sense to set a prequal during the War of Heroes or Loog's rebellion? if they wanted to do so on the Dagdan continent wouldn't it make sense to set it during the Imperial invasion? if the intent is to have some familiarity with the setting, why did they leave on the table 3 incredibly safe, important, and interesting points of the history of Fodlan that would have served amazingly for this purpose.

Hope to hear everyone's thoughts, and happy Fire Emblem-ing this week!