Liberty seeding possibilities

with only a couple games left in the regular season, my head was spinning a little trying to figure out all the possible seeding outcomes. there are so many scenarios where teams finish with the same record, which makes it hard to understand where seeds 4-8 will actually fall.

4th would be ideal for us, since we’d get home court and we’d avoid minnesota/golden state/vegas in the first round. but if 4th isn’t happening, 8th looks like the next best option?

these percentages are very rough, just trying to get a sense of the possibilities:

seed	rough chance	what needs to happen
4th	~17%	NY wins both vs ATL + IND loses at least 1 to MIN
5th	~9%	NY goes 1-1 vs ATL + WAS/DAL don’t both finish ahead of us
6th	~20%	NY goes 1-1 or 2-0 vs ATL + WAS/DAL results leave us ahead of enough of them
7th	~35%	NY goes 0-2 or 1-1 vs ATL + WAS/DAL both finish ahead of us. tiebreakers determine who lands where
8th	~19%	NY goes 0-2 vs ATL + WAS/DAL both win enough to finish ahead of us, OR NY goes 1-1 and both WAS + DAL win out

so i think this is my rooting guide:

4th (best case, we’d get home court adv):

NY win both ATL games. MIN beat IND at least once.

if 4th is off the table…

8th:

if NY goes 1-1, root for WAS + DAL to win out. if NY goes 0-2, root for WAS + DAL to finish ahead of us.

8th wouldn’t be so bad. while it wouldn’t be a walk in the park (but let’s be real, nothing is going to be lol) we’ve shown we can actually beat the lynx. i felt good about our away win the other day. 8th would also keep the valks on the other side of the bracket until later, probably until the final if we can manage to get there.

6th:

if NY goes 1-1 or 2-0, we want at least one of WAS/DAL to drop games.

6th would mean vegas, which also isn’t exactly ideal, but we’ve beaten them twice this season also.

5th/7th:

these are basically going to come down to the exact combination of NY, WAS and DAL results + tiebreakers.

🕯 pls not 7th 🕯 that would mean first round of golden state which would not be great.

am i thinking about this correctly or am i missing something with the tiebreakers? what are everyone's thoughts?