What 598 tests taught us about how beginner trading claims fall apart

I built Tickfloor, so read this with that in mind. We tested 517 trading rules and ran 598 correction tests. On raw returns, 87 came out ahead of an equal-weight benchmark that pays no costs. Eight had an unadjusted p-value under 0.05. After the correction for how many we tried, none held. Two clean holdout candidates went on to a one-shot test and neither confirmed.

For a beginner that means three things. Ask how many variants were tried. Ask whether costs are in. Ask what the comparison is. It does not mean nobody can have an edge, only that these rules on these datasets did not show one. Limits: survivorship bias in the stock universe and optimistic fill assumptions.

Full method: tickfloor.com/evidence?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=beg-r05. Not financial advice.