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r/fantasybball•
Alauda15

Week 22 Roster Management Guide

Quality Post

This edition is tailored for '13-14 Week 22, for owners using H2H 8/9 Cat scoring and daily lineup locks.

Scheduling
  • Games Played by Team

Here is a schedule grid. Here is another, and another.

Teams play either 5 games (Portland), 4 games (17 teams), 3 games (11 teams), or 2 games (Golden State) in Week 22. Find out the number of games your roster, excluding temporary players (streamers) and games sat due to injury, will score for you. Determine whether your team is at an advantage/disadvantage in terms of games played.

  • Weekly Schedule by Team

BBM's Schedule Analyzer displays a visualized grid of team games by day, and defaults to a date range of NEXT week. To display Week 22, set the start date to March 22 and the end date to March 30. To analyze a focused date range within this week, adjust the settings appropriately.

  • Quality Games

Quality Games (the term is arbitrary and preached by BBM) are games scheduled on days when there are fewer than 10 teams (or fewer teams in general) scheduled to play games (usually Tuesdays and Thursdays). Having rostered players with Quality Games on your schedule will enable you to optimize your schedule for the otherwise log-jammy days (usually Wednesdays, Fridays, and Sundays) and minimize the risk of being forced to bench an active player on those days.

Dallas, LA Lakers, and Portland play TWO of their scheduled games on Tuesday AND Thursday. This circumstance grants flexibility for the rest of the week for managers who own players from these teams.

Quality Games in Week 22
2 QG: DAL, LAL, POR
1 QG: ATL, CLE, HOU, LAC, MIL, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, TOR
0 QG: Everybody else (17 teams)
Roster Management

Unless you know for a fact that your team can breeze through its Week 22 match-up, it's imperative that you maximize is production in every way possible. The goal is to optimize your roster and gain the best possible advantage over your opponent.

First, analyze your roster for a complete sense of how it works and how it will statistically stack up against your opponent.

  • Roster Analysis

Input your roster (again, excluding streamers) into BBM's Team Analysis tool for a visualization of its unprocessed statistical strengths and weaknesses. Select any punt categories and select a relevant date range for the analysis source and value outputs (last 2 weeks, last 5 games, last month etc.) in the "Analysis Source" section. DO NOT use the "Full Season" analysis. A full season analysis source will display an outdated/misguided picture, especially for "late-bloomer" players. Analyze fresh numbers. Nothing else really matters at this point.

Use this analysis in the "Streaming" subsection below.

  • Flexibility

Anybody who can't produce reliably, who is in a slump, or who isn't guaranteed health should be met with flexibility.

If your roster shows a +5 total value score in blocks and rebounds, then rostering Tyson Chandler might not be an optimal use of a spot (dependent on opponent's match-up). Regardless of his value, Chandler and his roster spot could serve more useful if it's used for streaming consistent production that will boost categories that actually require help. Recognize these hiccups in your roster and react accordingly. Remember that player value DOES NOT MATTER in this stage of the season. Do not let the past influence your decision making and valuation of players.

David Lee/Klay Thompson owners are in tight corners this week, because the Warriors only have two games scheduled. Furthermore, these two games are near the end of the week, disallowing flexibility in the final days of the week when the match-up could become tight. Owners will have to wait out four days of an idle roster spot, four whole days where somebody else could be occupying it to give them production in contribution towards a win.

Stashing injured players is inadvisable unless it's in preparation for Week 23. There's no point in stashing if you can't make it to the next round, so be flexible with injuries and maximize the short-term production.

  • Streaming

Your roster should have at least 1 spot to be utilized for streaming. Your goal is to stream free agents to maximize the number of games scored for your team. Exploit this week's schedule in order to maximize games scored, while also minimizing the number of roster transactions used to do so (make sure to use them all).

For example, if I add Pero Antic on Wednesday for his Wed @MIN and Thu vs. POR, then exchange him for Kyle Singler on Friday for his Fri vs. MIA and Sat @PHI, I'd have a full four games in four nights, including a PHI match-up, using only one roster transaction.

In deciding who to stream, always consider the following factors:

  1. Your categorical needs. Which stats need help/padding? Identify swing/non-dominant categories early on, and build on them.
  2. The FA's schedule. Consider their scheduling factors (QG, B2B sets, and favorable match-ups) and maximize the games scored, while minimizing waiver transactions needed.
  3. Balancing the number of waiver transactions available and the number of streaming spots you have. If you have 2 streaming spots, you will need double the roster transactions. Minimize the number of transactions required to roster as many games as possible.
Schedule Analysis

Use this section to identify streaming candidates suitable for your roster and match-up. Remember to exploit the scheduling in order to maximize games scored, while minimizing transactions used.

Favorable match-ups are bolded, QG's are italicized, and B2B sets are indicated by (parentheses).

Portland Trailblazers

|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |:-|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:| |(MIA|ORL)|-|(ATL|CHI)|-|MEM|

Five games, 2 B2B, 2 QG, and four games in five nights. No steady streaming options, but better consistency and an exclusive five game week could justify a week-long hold. Should Mo Williams get hurt again, keep an eye on CJ McCollum. Dorrell Wright gives 2 threes and 5 boards per game.

Top Candidates: Mo Williams (PTS, 3PM), Dorrell Wright (3PM, REB)

San Antonio Spurs

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
PHI-DEN-(DENNOR)-

PHI match-up to start the week. Pop could rest a combination of TD/TP/Manu during the B2B set, so look at Boris Diaw, Marco Belinelli, and Patty Mills for standard league stats during those games.

Top Candidates: Boris Diaw (3PM, REB, FG%), Marco Belinelli (3PM, FG%)

Los Angeles Lakers

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
-NYK-(MILMIN)-PHO

Xavier Henry is gone for the rest of the fantasy season, so watch for Blazemore and Wes Johnson to play a bit more at SF. Kendall Marshall will see escalating production due to Henry and Farmar's absence and Nash's dubious state. Jordan Hill is an inadvisable pickup because D'Antoni could arbitrarily DNP-CD him/restrain him during the week. But Hill is "starting" at PF for now, meaning Ryan Kelly has probably been invalidated as a standard league option for the time being.

Top Candidates: Nick Young (PTS, 3PM), Kendall Marshall (AST), Wesley Johnson (3PM, BLK)

Detroit Pistons

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
UTA-CLE-(MIAPHI)-

A Stuckey add is inadvisable, but you could try him for last-minute PTS.

Top Candidates: Kyle Singler (3PM, STL)

Toronto Raptors

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
-(CLEBOS)-BOS-ORL

Top Candidates: Terrence Ross (3PM)

Oklahoma City Thunder

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
(DENDAL)--SAC-UTA

Russell Westbrook WILL sit out a B2B game (DEN or DAL), and Reggie Jackson is a favorable start for that game specifically.

Top Candidates: Caron Butler (3PM), Reggie Jackson (PTS, 3PM)

Atlanta Hawks

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
PHO-(MINPOR)-WAS-

Top Candidates: Pero Antic (3PM, FG%)

Cleveland Cavaliers

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
-(TORDET)-BKN-IND

Dellavedova and Gee are competing for wing minutes, and their values are linked to the health of Luol Deng (ankle) and CJ Miles (ankle, out indefinitely).

Top Candidates: Jarrett Jack (PTS, AST) Dion Waiters (PTS, 3PM), Tristan Thompson (REB), Alonzo Gee (STL, 3PM), Matthew Dellavedova (3PM, AST)

Minnesota Timberwolves

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
MEM-ATL-LAL-BKN

Dieng's dependability is tied to Pekovic's health.

Top Candidates: Gorgui Dieng (REB, BLK, FG), Corey Brewer (3PM, STL)

Phoenix Suns

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
ATL-WAS-NYK-LAL

Top Candidates: PJ Tucker (3PM, REB, STL, FG%), Channing Frye (3PM, BLK), Markieff Morris (PTS, REB, FG%)

Miami Heat

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
POR-IND-(DETMIL)-

Top Candidates: Mario Chalmers (3PM, AST), Chris Andersen (BLK), Ray Allen (3PM)

Dallas Mavericks

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
-OKC-LAC-SAC-

Top Candidates: Vince Carter (3PM)

Charlotte Bobcats

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
HOU-BKN-ORL--

Top Candidates: Josh McRoberts (3PM, AST, REB), Gary Neal (3PM), Chris Douglas-Roberts (3PM, STL)

Houston Rockets

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
CHA--PHI-LAC-

Top Candidates: Patrick Beverley (3PM, STL)

Milwakee Bucks

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
LAC--LAL-MIA-

Look for Ramon Sessions to exceed his season production due to Wolters' absence.

Top Candidates: Ramon Sessions (PTS, FT%), Khris Middleton (PTS, 3PM)

Philadelphia 76ers

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
SAS--HOU-DET-

Top Candidates: Henry Sims (REB)

Orlando Magic

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
-POR--CHA-TOR

Top Candidates: Maurice Harkless (3PM, REB, BLK, STL), Kyle O'Quinn (REB, BLK)

GOOD LUCK! FIGHT TO THE DEATH!

Posted Mar 23, 2014, 4:10 PM UTC · edited

3914
ebiya•

this is exactly what I was looking for! thanks!

3
BoogerSlug•

How does the team analysis work exactly? For example I have a total of -3.09 in toV, what does that mean exactly? Here is the full analysis http://i.imgur.com/ohYyuwi.jpg

3
Alauda15OPMonstar•

What ashishduh said. Toy around with different sample sizes.

Also, keep in mind that the more players you have, the more your total values become skewed from your core players.

For example, you would definitely have a positive score in PTS and FT% if you hadn't included Diaw and Blatche in your analysis.

3
ashishduh•

0 means average production. So a -3.09 means your team commits a lot of TO. Although it looks like you picked last 2 weeks, so the sample size isn't that great.

2
BoogerSlug•

Thanks, I picked one week I believe, il check again with a bigger sample Size

1
[deleted]•

[deleted]

2
ton_nanek•

You're in it to win it at this point, anyone is droppable if there is a replacement on the wire that is producing better and will have minutes all week (two weeks?).

5
cairdeas•

This is my dilemma too. I'm leaning towards running him for several reasons.

  1. he has four games.
  2. His dud against Memphis was explainable. Grit & grind got him in foul trouble. Tough break.
  3. Before that he had 12 and 11 with 4 blocks against Chicago, who the Pacers play on Monday.

Not setting that in stone though. My waiver wire also doesn't look the best.

1
awhitey2291•

This is amazing and made my life so much easier, thank you!

1
jonroobs•

once again, great job

1
slagathor_zimblebob•

Between Belinelli and Diaw who's more reliable? What about Ginobili? If he plays in some games is he worth an add?

1
Alauda15OPMonstar•

They're about equal, provided both Ginobili and Duncan rest the same game. Ginobili is a good add. Add Diaw if Duncan rests, Belinelli if Ginobili rests, and Patty Mills if Parker rests.

2
stark16•

Pierce was just dropped in my league. Should I drop Sessions or Foye for him since he has a better schedule? I'm worried he might get rested

1
krugo•

Looking at dropping T Ross or Livingston for Marshall. This week is the last week of the regular season, with a 2 week semi and finals playoffs the following weeks. Tough calls :(

1
CHIEFMARKIEF•

Thanks for linking me here Alauda.

For the Wed. + Thurs. back to back.

Who would you stream? Shelvin Mack or Louis Williams? (assuming kyle korver stays out)

would be dropping reggie jackson btw.. today and missing out on his friday game but grabbing him up for sundays game

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[deleted]•

[deleted]

1