The one where Raduev calculates how much of the country is held by loyalists

A couple of weeks ago I did a rough estimate of how much of Syria is under the control of the Islamic State: http://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/2kbth1/my_estimate_of_the_populationin_2011_of_currently/

I calculated that they control around 19.5% of Syria, in terms of the Syrian population distribution in 2011, before the war and the refugee crisis it caused.

How much do the loyalists control then, in terms of the population, going by pre-war population figures? Well, I've got an hour or two to waste, so let's try to estimate. This is going to be a much looser estimate than the ISIS one though, ISIS' holdings are much easier to calculate. Their borders are really neat and tidy in most place. Well, let's begin.

http://www.cbssyr.sy/yearbook/2011/Data-Chapter2/TAB-1-2-2011.htm

Tartous governorate: 100% under loyalist control. Sidenote: people say that Tartous and Lattakia are Alawite strongholds but they actually aren't. Countryside is mostly Alawite villages but there are loads of Christian and Sunni villages, and the city of Tartous was a third Alawite, a third Sunni, and a third Christian before the war, while the city of Lattakia was majority Sunni with a minority Alawite population. Today, both cities are overwhelmingly Sunni because of the refugees. Alawites might be a plurality in the area right now, but Sunnis + Christians are the actual majority now.

Lattakia governorate: 95% loyalist control, a number of villages in the northeastern tip of the governorate are in the hands of mostly Caucasian Jihadis.

Lattakia made up 5% of the Syrian population, Tartous made up 3.9%. Let's say loyalists control 90% of Lattakia(it's probably closer to 95% though). 3.9% + 4.5% = 8.4%

Suweida: 100% in loyalist control. 2% of the Syrian population. 8.4% + 2% = 10.4%

Hama has 5 districts. 2 of these, Hama District and Masyaf district, make up 59% of the population of Hama governorate according to the 2004 census(813,786 people out of 1,384,952 people). Loyalists control 95% of them, which gives them 56% of control of Hama in these 2 districts alone. Al-Suqaylabiyah and Mhardeh districts make up 27.7% of the governorate. The loyalists control 80% here. So these 4 distrists give the loyalists 78.2% control of Hama. Finally, the fifth district, Salamiyah, is 60% in loyalist control, 40% in ISIS control. Verdict: loyalists control 86% of Hama governorate, adding up a further 7.4 percent to their control of Syria tally. That's 17.8% percent now.

Damascus City governorate is 95% in loyalist hands. They have the whole city except for parts of Jobar and Yarmour Camp that is still in insurgent hands. That's 6.9% more percent of the country for the loyalists. 24.7% now.

Rif Dimashq is about 70% in loyalist hands. Insurgents are present in the caves of the west Qalamoun and east Qalamoun, they have Darayya and the majority of East Ghouta, and then some villages and towns in the south near Quneitra. 5.1% of the country for loyalists here. 29.8% now.

In Idlib governorate, the loyalists control 3 of the 5 district capitals(Idlib city, Ariha, and Jisr Shughur) and the areas that link them together. Insurgents control almost the whole of the 2 other districts, Maarat al Numan and Harem. Overall, I'd say the loyalists control 35% of the governorate, which is 3% of the country. 32.8% now.

Aleppo is a really hard one. Rough estimate: loyalists control half of Aleppo city and the nearby areas plus Safirah district, which adds up to a third of the governorate. Let's say 30% instead. ISIS controls something like 27% of the governorate(in terms of area they control a bit more than half), and the YPG control almost 10 percent in Ifrin, Sheikh Maqsoud, and Kobane. That's 7.3 more percent for the loyalists. 40.1% now.

Deir ez-Zor is just 10% loyalist, 0.7% more for the loyalists. 40.8% now.

In Hasakah governorate, the loyalists control half of Qamishli and half of Hasakah, plus some surrounding areas. Around 25% of the governorate(ISIS control 20%, YPG and Assyrian militias control the remaining 55%). That's 1.6% more. We're at 42.4% now.

By the way, this gives the YPG, the PKK, and the pro-YPG Assyrian/Syriac militias(Qamishli Syriacs defected to the NDF) 6% of Syria. 3.575%(Hasakah) and 2.42%(Aleppo)=5.995%

In Homs, the goverment controls everything except for the insurgent pocket of Rastan and surrounding areas plus Al-Waer(around 12.3% of Homs governorate according to my calcuclations). That's another 7.6% for the loyalist tally. 50% now.

And finally, Deraa-Quneitra area is split 60-40 in favor of the loyalists. That's 4% in favor of the loyalists.

So, roughly, the cities and towns currently held by the government consisted of something like 54% of the Syrian population before the war started.