Theory: The cops railroaded Adnaan as part of a deal in another case involving Jay’s people

Jay’s contacts ("uncles and cousins") were negotiating with the cops in a separate case. They told the cops to get Jay off the hook in exchange for cooperating in another case. A larger, more important case to the cops. This explains why the cops railroaded Adnan and fed Jay a story and evidence, and why they went out of their way to assign him a lawyer. The cops needed Jay to walk in order to make headway in another case. You gotta crack a few eggs to make an omelet.

Why this makes sense:

• According to Part 1 of Jay’s interview with The Intercept, Jay was a larger drug dealer than we knew, which means he’s higher up in the drug trade and has contacts to protect, or else he risks being murdered himself. This lines up with why Jay was scared even after Adnan was in jail. Snitches get stitches… or in Baltimore, killed.

• The other side of this coin is also true. Jay's contacts were incentivized to make sure Jay walked and didn’t snitch. Even more so if these contacts were Jay’s family and consider Jay a good kid who might snitch/die if presented with jail time.

• The prosecutor and homicide detectives are seasoned veterans, and would not force so many inconsistencies all the way through trial if they were not incentivized in some way.

• Similarly, Jay would have never gotten hand-selected council if the the prosecutor Kevin Urick or the cops didn’t have a stake in something larger.

• Speaking of Jay’s lawyer, Cristina Gutierrez had a conniption fit (around 34min into episode 10) when she found out at trial that Urick assigned Jay an attorney, and spent two days trying to convince the judge to rule a mistrial. The prosecution knows how crazy it is to meddle in the assignment of a witness’s council, yet they did it anyway.

• Jay admitted to Gutierrez that the plea deal specifically agreed not to pursue a “drug case” during the appeal (it’s near the bottom, search for "Q And what were those?”). Convenient for Jay’s drug peeps.

• The evidence collected around Patrick and Phil so far has not been recovered. Where are their pager/phone records if they were subpoenaed? What is their relationship to Jay? We know almost nothing about these two, yet they were two of the only 4 outgoing contacts immediately following the murder (Jenn and Nisha being the other two), until we know Adnan had his phone (when he dialed his voicemail at 5:14pm). This theory would explain why the cops might not collect or even go so far as to destroy this evidence.

• Why else would this case have been handed to the Baltimore City police in the first place? Like they didn't have enough unsolved murders? The county police would have been more than qualified to take a case involving some petty high school romance-gone-wrong bullshit. The city cops needed the case so they could deliver their end of some outside agreement.

• According to Susan Simpson at TheViewFromLL2.com, the cops and Jay never had a legal plea deal; more of a “gentleman’s agreement.” This non-binding arrangement would protect the police in the event that the case came back on them (like is happening now). A calculated move to cover their asses and keep an appeal out of court. Also explains why they went out of their way to thank the judge at Jay’s sentencing knowing their tactics were unorthodox at best.

• Jay seems as surprised as everyone else that he’s getting special treatment, which suggests he’s none-the-wiser of the larger plot around him. He characterised the assignment of special council as “fishy.” We agree, Jay! Since Jay didn’t know about said larger plot, this is why the judge didn’t rule a mistrial; because Jay was unaware of any special arrangement.

• Interestingly, this scenario also leaves room where Jay is not necessarily guilty of Hae’s murder, only involved. So Jay could in fact be telling many half-truths about his involvement in order to cover up somebody else’s dirt. Speculation that the “Jay’s innocent” folks might get behind.

Where to look next:

• Find out why the county gave the case to the Baltimore city police

• See if Urick or the detectives were involved with any other cases with Jay’s family or known contacts around that time.

• Figure out who Patrick and Phil are and what their relationship to Jay might be. Family? Drug trade? Innocent friends?

• The higher this goes, the more impossible it becomes to prove. It’s a true conspiracy theory that would go deep into the Baltimore PD and drug trade; two groups that are highly unlikely to be cracked by a bunch of podcast fans. But lets try anyway!

UPDATES

• Hae’s computer was collected as evidence by the county, but when the city gets involved, it disappears from the case. Corroborates multiple examples of evidence tampering.

• In a related topic it's suggested that BPD had jurisdiction because Hae's body was found in Leakin Park, covered by the Southwestern District. So BPD had a legitimate claim to the case, but still not totally clear on whether Baltimore County could have kept it since Hae's missing persons report and the murder itself was in the county. E.g. Did BPD still make a request to transfer the case or were they required to take it?