London house prices fall for sixth month in a row
London house prices are continuing to wobble.
http://www.cityam.com/213664/london-house-prices-growth-capital-slows-general-election-looms
Posted Apr 14, 2015, 9:07 PM UTC
2435
The growth is slowing, the house prices are still rising :(
10
Nope, house prices have dropped over the last six months, £9,000 in February alone. The only part that has risen is the year on year, that's because prices peaked last summer and have been falling since.
4
In which range of properties though? if its £1mil+ then £9000 ain't much.
12
It's £9k off the previous average of £490k-ish. It is too crude a measure to look at London as a whole though - if you look borough-by-borough, outside zone one, it's not a consistent fall and in some cases not a fall at all.
4
It's nearly 1% in a single month, a 10% decrease in a year would be quite a lot no?
2
so much of this...
1
This is likely a temporary cooling due to the election, especially considering a labour govt would bring in the mansion tax.
A lot of people will be sitting out until it's settled.
10
Can confirm. I'm a structural engineer. A lot of clients we work with are developers and a lot are sitting on their property until after the election before they finalise plans.
8
there's still a massive correction due even if prices do "bounce back" again. interest rates at record lows for years, many (stupid) government policies designed to prop prices up (htb, htb2, etc), many stupid regulations on building to keep supply low, an entire generation of people unable to buy - it'll all end extremely horribly at some point
3
The interesting question isn’t whether the roof will fall in – it obviously will – but how exposed the banks are when it does. Because we probably can’t afford to bail them out again.
2
My thoughts are that personally I disagree, ultimately house prices have risen because of demand (obviously) and available credit. As the credit lines are being squeezed due to new mortgage rules it means that there are less people able to get the credit to pay for the properties.
What a lot of people don't realise is that despite the headline figure of house prices rocketing there is a more sublet effect at work. First, household incomes in London have increased because in many households both partners often work. Second is that interest rates have fallen dramatically so while the house prices have gone up the monthly repayments as a % of household income aren't up by as much.
A £400k mortgage costs around £2000 per month. In the short term that is affordable for a working couple.
We're now seeing a clampdown on lending because people still need 10%+ deposits because it very soon won't be as affordable when interest rates rise.
We can see that the council of mortgage lenders have had a 16% drop in mortgage approvals in Feb.
2
Everything you say is correct, although there is still a lot of upward pressue too.
Net immigration to London is huge. Expect 9m within next 5 years.
London property is still see as a safe haven for overseas investors and will continue to attract money.
But to let investors are still expanding their stock. Generally they are not as reliant on leverage.
Lastly, stock is still very limited and building no where near where it should be.
All these factors and ones you mentioned will net off against each other to a certain extent, so it's difficult to call. For me I think the continued net migration will keep prices inflated for the foreseeable future.
2
credit is the available demand if you leave aside cash flushed institutional investors, who do admittedly have a large role in the game
0
Only Half a Mil now for a 1 bed flat, surely that's a Bargain?.
5
Is That You Jaden Smith?
4
£480k average is for a house.
1
Where though?
1
London as defined by the ONS.
1
sure a house, if you wanna live in the country.
1
A lot of the shit properties that people bought during the panic last year are falling. Good properties, that people would actually want to live in, are still rising like crazy.
4
Also in the news today: http://imgur.com/WDVpLvb
Can't believe a word anyone says anymore.
3
Many of the newspapers' main advertisers are in property. It's amazing how they're twisting 6 months of falls to be a rise.
5
They're doing it by using the ONS figures which are based on the year to February. 9 months of rises, then 3 months of fall = overall rise.
It's a lagging indicator.
Stupidly they don't realise that if the year to January was higher than the year to February that means price rises were lower this January than last January. (A fall being by definition lower than a rise this is the case).
It's very statistically naive publishing.
1
There was a rise from Nov to Dec 14. Here is the dataset from the ONS, see table 2: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/hpi/house-price-index/february-2015/rft-monthly-and-qtly-february-15.xls
The Standard obviously just quickly scanned and didn't check their data, which explains why they are the only people reporting a fall every month for six months.
Also historically there's always a drop from Jan to Feb (you can confirm it in that same dataset), so I wouldn't get too excited yet.
2
Ive earned 45k in 18months on a one bet flat in east London. Not sure they are going down everywhere... Good news for me but not so good for others who have the salary but not the deposit to afford a place of their own.
-1
You haven't earnt it til the money is in the bank and the property is sold. Sorry. Until then, it's just theoretical.
3
Chances are, he won't net any extra money even if he sells. If he wants to upgrade, he'll have to pay correspondingly higher prices and more stamp duty if it goes over a certain threshold.
1
Or, if i move north i may 'net' some...
I'd like to save for another deposit and then rent the one I'm in... I'm not sure how it all works but i have time to figure it out.
-1
Well yeah, but the valuation is 45k higher, so thats quite nice considering i haven't actually done anything to add that much on.
-1
i haven't actually done anything to add that much on
... which should tell you precisely how real your '45k gain' is. it's entirely theoretical until you sell. in 6 months you may just as likely be wondering why your flat is 'worth' 45k less.
1
Id always view it as being what I paid for it, anything else is extra. But the way London goes, you don't lose money on property... Unless your house falls down!
-1
Fantastic news, this will make houses so much more affordable for your average millionaire. Wealthy billionaires pricing them out of the market just always seemed so unfair to me.